MRP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRP - Millrose Properties, Inc.
$30.39
-0.19 (-0.62%)
▼
5d:
+0.2%
30d:
+7.46%
90d:
+10.31%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MRP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MRP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.56
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRP is currently trading at $30.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.21 to $29.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $30.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MRP scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.60 (+23.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $30.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MRP scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.60 (+23.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$28.21 -
$29.57
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.7% below Wall St target ($37.60)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.21 -
$29.57
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.66
Resistance Level
$30.74
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.33
Wall Street Target
$37.60
(+23.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Profit Margin
62.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.45
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$30.51
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$30.57
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$30.47
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 4.8%)
$75.29
(+148%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 4.8%)
$35.01
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 4.8%)
$29.76
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.87
Bull Case
$38.17
(+26%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$34.70
(+14%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$20.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:04 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Matthew B Gorson
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-05
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