Millrose Properties (MRP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRP - Millrose Properties, Inc.
$25.20
-0.77 (-2.96%)
▼
5d:
-6.87%
30d:
-17.59%
90d:
-15.35%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
19d
Get Alerted When MRP Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MRP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MRP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.38
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRP is currently trading at $25.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.37 to $31.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MRP scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.17 (+47.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MRP scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.17 (+47.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$27.37 -
$31.01
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.5% below Wall St target ($37.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.37 -
$31.01
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.92
Resistance Level
$29.08
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.75
Wall Street Target
$37.17
(+47.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Profit Margin
62.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 9.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.79
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$22.46
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$21.20
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$25.18
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.2%)
$79.50
(+216%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 6.2%)
$30.19
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 6.2%)
$25.66
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.81
Bull Case
$33.07
(+31%)
Analyst growth 15.8%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$30.07
(+19%)
Market implied 15.8%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$17.66
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$29.93
(+18.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MRP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated REIT - Residential Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Residential by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
MAA
Mid-America Apartment Co… |
BUY
26 analysts |
$141 | 52 HOLD |
|
AVB
AvalonBay Communities Inc |
HOLD
24 analysts |
$201 | 68 BUY |
|
AMH
American Homes 4 Rent |
BUY
23 analysts |
$37 | 48 HOLD |
|
ESS
Essex Property Trust Inc |
HOLD
27 analysts |
$304 | 51 HOLD |
|
SUI
Sun Communities Inc |
STRONG BUY
18 analysts |
$139 | 52 HOLD |
