Millrose Properties (MRP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRP - Millrose Properties, Inc.
$29.69
0.10 (0.34%)
â˛
5d:
-6.4%
30d:
-0.24%
90d:
+1.4%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MRP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MRP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.56
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRP is currently trading at $29.69, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.39 to $31.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.17 (+25.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.17 (+25.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$29.39 -
$31.00
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.2% below Wall St target ($37.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.39 -
$31.00
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.35
Resistance Level
$32.17
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.12
Wall Street Target
$37.17
(+25.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Profit Margin
62.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.51
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$29.33
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$29.16
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â9)
$29.75
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 4.8%)
$75.67
(+155%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 4.8%)
$34.20
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 4.8%)
$29.07
(-2%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.78
Bull Case
$38.13
(+28%)
Analyst growth 17.1%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$34.66
(+17%)
Market implied 17.1%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$20.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$30.29
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 4:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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