Millrose Properties (MRP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$26.12
-0.49 (-1.84%)
▼
5d:
+0.85%
30d:
+17.24%
90d:
-12.23%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
0d
Protect MRP Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (29%)
Quality Score
34/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$22.38 – $25.84
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.8x
CHEAP
vs 9.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$36.00
+37.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$24.53 / $27.22
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MRP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 4, 2026 at $26.43 · last confirmed Nov 5, 2026
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.13
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRP is currently trading at $26.12, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.38 to $25.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $24.53, while resistance sits at $27.22.
Market Sentiment: MRP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.00 (+37.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $24.53, while resistance sits at $27.22.
Market Sentiment: MRP scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.00 (+37.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.38 -
$25.84
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$22.38 -
$25.84
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$24.53
Resistance Level
$27.22
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding MRP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.8% below Wall St target ($36.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.84
Wall Street Target
$36.00
(+37.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.8%
Profit Margin
63.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 9.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.97
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$23.87
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$22.82
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$26.21
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.0%)
$83.37
(+219%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 8.0%)
$32.89
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 8.0%)
$27.96
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.02
Bull Case
$32.31
(+24%)
Analyst growth 10.4%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$29.37
(+12%)
Market implied 10.4%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$18.09
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$30.00
(+14.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MRP)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 27, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits shows bullish sentiment towards $MRP with no significant news articles available.
Key Retail Themes:
Bullish sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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