MRP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRP - Millrose Properties, Inc.
$28.17
-0.20 (-0.70%)
▼
5d:
-0.7%
30d:
-2.19%
90d:
-7.85%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MRP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MRP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.55
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRP is currently trading at $28.17, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.10 to $29.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 89.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.60 (+36.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.60 (+36.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$28.10 -
$29.75
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.1% below Wall St target ($38.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.10 -
$29.75
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.37
Resistance Level
$29.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.78
Wall Street Target
$38.60
(+36.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
135.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
89.7%
Profit Margin
65.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.83
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$27.30
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$26.78
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$28.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.0%)
$79.19
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 4.0%)
$31.94
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 4.0%)
$27.15
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.80
Bull Case
$35.94
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.4%, PE expands to 11.1
Base Case
$32.67
(+15%)
Market implied 15.4%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$19.26
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$30.04
(+5.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 3:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Matthew B Gorson
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-05
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