MAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.
$125.16
0.68 (0.55%)
▲
5d:
-2.64%
30d:
-5.42%
90d:
-9.37%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MAA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MAA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.86
Based on -5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAA is currently trading at $125.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $128.66 to $133.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 39.5) is in line with its historical norms (39.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $124.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAA scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.16 (+15.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $124.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAA scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $143.16 (+15.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$128.66 -
$133.46
Company Quality Score
30/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MAA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($143.16)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$128.66 -
$133.46
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$124.19
Resistance Level
$130.02
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.47
Wall Street Target
$143.16
(+15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.7%
Profit Margin
18.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
39.5 vs 39.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$124.98
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$125.48
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$125.98
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→39)
PE COMPRESSION
$124.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.5, Growth: -15.5%)
$90.75
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: -15.5%)
$46.37
(-63%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -15.5%)
$39.42
(-68%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 37.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.40
Bull Case
$130.08
(+5%)
Analyst growth -7.2%, PE expands to 41.2
Base Case
$118.25
(-5%)
Market implied -7.2%, PE stable at 37.5
Bear Case
$86.69
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 3:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:42 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amber Fairbanks
SELL
711 shares
2026-04-06
Aubrey Clay Holder
SELL
145 shares
2026-04-06
Timothy Argo
SELL
183 shares
2026-04-06
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