MAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.
$116.38
-1.36 (-1.16%)
▼
5d:
-0.75%
30d:
-10.03%
90d:
-18.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MAA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MAA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.96
Based on -5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAA is currently trading at $116.38, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.43 to $130.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 37.1) is in line with its historical norms (38.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $116.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $141.40 (+21.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $116.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $141.40 (+21.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$120.43 -
$130.58
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MAA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($141.40)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$120.43 -
$130.58
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$116.17
Resistance Level
$121.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.06
Wall Street Target
$141.40
(+21.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.7%
Profit Margin
18.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
37.1 vs 38.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$114.52
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$112.69
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$110.88
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 37→39)
$116.38
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.1, Growth: -15.9%)
$84.84
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: -15.9%)
$46.70
(-60%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: -15.9%)
$39.69
(-66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 34.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.41
Bull Case
$119.26
(+3%)
Analyst growth -7.9%, PE expands to 38.0
Base Case
$108.42
(-7%)
Market implied -7.9%, PE stable at 34.5
Bear Case
$80.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 37.1 to 38.9
Stabilization Target:
$122.15
(+5.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 7:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amber Fairbanks
SELL
711 shares
2026-04-06
Aubrey Clay Holder
SELL
145 shares
2026-04-06
Timothy Argo
SELL
183 shares
2026-04-06
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