MAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.
$131.31
-0.75 (-0.57%)
▼
5d:
-1.63%
30d:
-1.08%
90d:
+1.0%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MAA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MAA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.47
Based on -5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAA is currently trading at $131.31, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $131.60 to $134.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 42.0) is in line with its historical norms (38.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $130.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAA scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $130.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAA scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$131.60 -
$134.58
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($143.80)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$131.60 -
$134.58
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.60
(2.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$130.14
Resistance Level
$135.73
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.01
Wall Street Target
$143.80
(+9.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.7%
Profit Margin
18.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
42.0 vs 38.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$134.86
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$138.50
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$142.24
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→39)
PE COMPRESSION
$131.36
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.0, Growth: -14.8%)
$95.72
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: -14.8%)
$45.73
(-65%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -14.8%)
$38.87
(-70%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 38.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.42
Bull Case
$132.76
(+1%)
Analyst growth -8.6%, PE expands to 42.5
Base Case
$120.69
(-8%)
Market implied -8.6%, PE stable at 38.6
Bear Case
$89.80
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 1:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amber Fairbanks
SELL
711 shares
2026-04-06
Aubrey Clay Holder
SELL
145 shares
2026-04-06
Timothy Argo
SELL
183 shares
2026-04-06
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Advanced MAA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MAA price and gamma walls.
