MAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.
$132.34
-0.98 (-0.74%)
▼
5d:
-1.15%
30d:
-5.43%
90d:
+2.45%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MAA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MAA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$70.95
Based on -1.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAA is currently trading at $132.34, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $132.54 to $139.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 42.6) compared to its historical average (38.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $131.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $131.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MAA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$132.54 -
$139.05
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MAA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($143.08)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.4% growth with 0.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$132.54 -
$139.05
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$131.08
Resistance Level
$137.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.60
Wall Street Target
$143.08
(+7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-31.5%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
42.6 vs 38.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$137.85
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$142.54
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$147.39
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 43→39)
PE COMPRESSION
$133.21
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.6, Growth: -7.7%)
$104.94
(+-21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: -7.7%)
$51.27
(-62%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: -7.7%)
$43.58
(-67%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 41.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.34
Bull Case
$141.61
(+7%)
Analyst growth -6.3%, PE expands to 45.2
Base Case
$128.73
(-3%)
Market implied -6.3%, PE stable at 41.1
Bear Case
$93.42
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amber Fairbanks
SELL
711 shares
2026-04-06
Aubrey Clay Holder
SELL
145 shares
2026-04-06
Timothy Argo
SELL
183 shares
2026-04-06
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