MAA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAA - Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.
$135.25
-0.75 (-0.55%)
▼
5d:
-4.88%
30d:
-2.63%
90d:
+7.67%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$73.61
Based on -1.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAA is currently trading at $135.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $133.14 to $140.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 42.8) compared to its historical average (38.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $127.60, while resistance sits at $139.59.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $127.60, while resistance sits at $139.59.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$133.14 -
$140.34
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($141.79)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.7% growth with 0.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$133.14 -
$140.34
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$127.60
Resistance Level
$139.59
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.76
Wall Street Target
$141.79
(+4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-31.5%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
42.8 vs 38.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$140.25
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$145.44
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$150.83
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 43→38)
PE COMPRESSION
$135.10
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.8, Growth: -6.7%)
$109.88
(+-19%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: -6.7%)
$55.97
(-59%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: -6.7%)
$47.58
(-65%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 41.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.25
Bull Case
$145.60
(+8%)
Analyst growth -2.7%, PE expands to 46.0
Base Case
$132.37
(-2%)
Market implied -2.7%, PE stable at 41.9
Bear Case
$92.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amber Fairbanks
SELL
711 shares
2026-04-06
Aubrey Clay Holder
SELL
145 shares
2026-04-06
Timothy Argo
SELL
183 shares
2026-04-06
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