MSBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSBI - Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$32.85
0.32 (0.98%)
â˛
5d:
-1.59%
30d:
+6.07%
90d:
+19.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MSBI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MSBI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.67
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.19
6.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSBI is currently trading at $32.85, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.55 to $33.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.7) compared to its historical average (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MSBI scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MSBI scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$31.55 -
$33.93
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.55 -
$33.93
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.07
Resistance Level
$34.33
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.71
Wall Street Target
$33.25
(+1.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.0%
Profit Margin
15.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.26
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$35.74
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$37.27
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$33.02
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 47.5%)
$68.89
(+110%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 47.5%)
$33.32
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 47.5%)
$28.32
(-14%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.57
Bull Case
$71.57
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$65.06
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.7
Bear Case
$22.12
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 6:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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