MSBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSBI - Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$33.67
0.39 (1.17%)
▲
5d:
+4.4%
30d:
+7.33%
90d:
+29.45%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSBI trades at premium valuation expecting 5.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MSBI trades at premium valuation expecting 5.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.01
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.78
3.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSBI is currently trading at $33.67, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.15 to $32.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.9) compared to its historical average (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$30.15 -
$32.49
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.25)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.5% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.15 -
$32.49
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.06
Resistance Level
$34.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.95
Wall Street Target
$33.25
(-1.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.4%
Profit Margin
15.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 8.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.52
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$37.48
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$39.54
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$33.78
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 47.5%)
$71.15
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 47.5%)
$34.15
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 47.5%)
$29.03
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.19
Bull Case
$73.22
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.8
Base Case
$66.56
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 28.0
Bear Case
$22.63
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 4:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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