MSBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSBI - Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$29.79
0.27 (0.91%)
▲
5d:
+1.02%
30d:
+8.01%
90d:
+37.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MSBI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MSBI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.62
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.43
5.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSBI is currently trading at $29.79, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.33 to $29.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (8.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $29.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $26.25. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $29.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $26.25. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$27.33 -
$29.42
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
44.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.1% above Wall St target ($26.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.5% growth with 14.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.33 -
$29.42
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.07
Resistance Level
$29.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.43
Wall Street Target
$26.25
(-11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.2%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.5% premium
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.85
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$32.24
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$33.69
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$29.67
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 38.5%)
$69.01
(+134%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 38.5%)
$29.86
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 38.5%)
$25.38
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.20
Bull Case
$65.52
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.3
Base Case
$59.56
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.8
Bear Case
$20.25
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kyle Owen Mooney
SELL
2808 shares
2026-01-28
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