Midland States Bancorp (MSBI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSBI - Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$32.94
0.20 (0.61%)
▲
5d:
-0.96%
30d:
-0.84%
90d:
+8.21%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MSBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.33
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.60
7.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSBI is currently trading at $32.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.66 to $33.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.7) compared to its historical average (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSBI scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSBI scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$32.66 -
$33.49
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 16% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.66 -
$33.49
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.42
Resistance Level
$33.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.67
Wall Street Target
$33.25
(+1.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.0%
Profit Margin
15.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.85
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$35.00
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$36.19
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$32.55
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 53.5%)
$70.15
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 53.5%)
$33.27
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 53.5%)
$28.28
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.56
Bull Case
$70.75
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$64.32
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$21.87
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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