Midland States Bancorp (MSBI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSBI - Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$32.96
0.37 (1.14%)
▲
5d:
+2.04%
30d:
+1.76%
90d:
+2.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MSBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MSBI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.09
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.07
8.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSBI is currently trading at $32.96, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.21 to $33.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.7) compared to its historical average (8.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSBI scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MSBI scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$32.21 -
$33.31
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 64/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.21 -
$33.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.36
Resistance Level
$33.47
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.72
Wall Street Target
$33.25
(+0.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.0%
Profit Margin
15.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.08
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$35.24
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$36.44
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$32.98
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 71.3%)
$68.78
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 71.3%)
$33.67
(+2%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 71.3%)
$28.62
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.56
Bull Case
$71.70
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 23.0
Base Case
$65.18
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$22.16
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 10:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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