Midland States Bancorp (MSBI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$32.09
-0.35 (-1.08%)
âŧ
5d:
-4.04%
30d:
-0.22%
90d:
-4.58%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (76%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$31.98 â $33.43
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.3x
FAIR
vs 8.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$34.75
+8.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$31.13 / $35.00
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MSBI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.62
Based on 2.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSBI is currently trading at $32.09, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.98 to $33.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSBI is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$31.98 -
$33.43
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$31.98 -
$33.43
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$31.13
Resistance Level
$35.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($34.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.25
Wall Street Target
$34.75
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
299.1%
Profit Margin
19.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.57
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$33.06
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$33.56
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.93
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.1%)
$71.23
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 1.1%)
$33.17
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 1.1%)
$28.19
(-12%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.27
Bull Case
$54.55
(+70%)
Analyst growth 52.9%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$49.59
(+55%)
Market implied 52.9%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$22.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MSBI)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Apr 2, 2024
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on MSBI are bearish (sentiment score -0.80) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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