MTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTN - Vail Resorts, Inc.
$138.33
2.96 (2.19%)
▲
5d:
+3.56%
30d:
+10.43%
90d:
+3.28%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 08, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$244.45
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$151.79
8.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTN is currently trading at $138.33, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $122.80 to $132.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.3) is in line with its historical norms (17.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $137.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $155.17 (+14.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $137.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $155.17 (+14.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$122.80 -
$132.94
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($155.17)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.5% growth with -4.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$122.80 -
$132.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.84
(6.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$121.67
Resistance Level
$137.64
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.30
Wall Street Target
$155.17
(+14.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.1%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 17.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$138.75
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$142.22
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$145.78
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$135.18
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 47.1%)
$488.69
(+261%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 47.1%)
$430.54
(+218%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.4, Growth: 47.1%)
$365.96
(+170%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.28
Bull Case
$165.09
(+22%)
Analyst growth 11.7%, PE expands to 23.5
Base Case
$150.09
(+11%)
Market implied 11.7%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$91.39
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 08, 2026 12:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Angela A Korch
BUY
190 shares
2026-03-16
Robert A Katz
BUY
37500 shares
2026-03-16
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Advanced MTN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTN price and gamma walls.
