MTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTN - Vail Resorts, Inc.
$140.68
4.33 (3.18%)
▲
5d:
+5.5%
30d:
+3.71%
90d:
+9.74%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 08, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$224.18
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$139.20
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTN is currently trading at $140.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $131.68 to $139.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.5) compared to its historical average (18.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$131.68 -
$139.89
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($148.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.0% growth with -7.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$131.68 -
$139.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.71
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$125.71
Resistance Level
$139.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.49
Wall Street Target
$148.50
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.8%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.0% premium
PE vs Historical
22.5 vs 18.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$150.53
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$161.06
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$172.34
(+23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$141.02
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.5, Growth: 44.0%)
$419.87
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 44.0%)
$406.69
(+189%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.4, Growth: 44.0%)
$343.58
(+144%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.64
Bull Case
$202.23
(+44%)
Analyst growth 34.8%, PE expands to 32.3
Base Case
$183.85
(+31%)
Market implied 34.8%, PE stable at 29.4
Bear Case
$92.72
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 3:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Angela A Korch
BUY
190 shares
2026-03-16
Robert A Katz
BUY
37500 shares
2026-03-16
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Advanced MTN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTN price and gamma walls.
