MTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTN - Vail Resorts, Inc.
$142.39
0.72 (0.51%)
▲
5d:
+5.94%
30d:
+12.22%
90d:
+9.43%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 08, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$221.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$137.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTN is currently trading at $142.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.72 to $136.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.8) compared to its historical average (18.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$124.72 -
$136.55
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($148.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.8% growth with -7.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$124.72 -
$136.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$125.71
Resistance Level
$139.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.76
Wall Street Target
$148.50
(+4.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.8%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.8% premium
PE vs Historical
22.8 vs 18.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$153.50
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$165.47
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$178.38
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$142.64
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.8, Growth: 44.0%)
$424.98
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 44.0%)
$406.69
(+186%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.2, Growth: 44.0%)
$339.84
(+139%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.65
Bull Case
$209.67
(+47%)
Analyst growth 34.5%, PE expands to 33.5
Base Case
$190.61
(+34%)
Market implied 34.5%, PE stable at 30.5
Bear Case
$96.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Angela A Korch
BUY
190 shares
2026-03-16
Robert A Katz
BUY
37500 shares
2026-03-16
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTN price and gamma walls.
