MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc.
SERVICES-MISCELLANEOUS AMUSEMENT & RECREATION
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Vail Resorts (MTN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$152.61
+1.44 (+0.95%)
â˛
5d:
-3.77%
30d:
-0.23%
90d:
+4.1%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Dec 09, 2026
24d
Protect MTN Gains
Updated Nov 13, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (59%)
Quality Score
42/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$147.33 â $156.07
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
23.4x
STRETCHED
vs 20.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$148.36
-2.8% vs target
Options IV & Volume
2th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$150.93 / $163.99
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.2% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$158.44
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$98.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTN is currently trading at $152.61, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $147.33 to $156.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.4) compared to its historical average (20.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $150.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTN scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $150.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTN scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$147.33 -
$156.07
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
2th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$147.33 -
$156.07
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$9.76
(6.4%)
Support Level
$150.93
Resistance Level
$163.99
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding MTN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 2th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($148.36)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.2% growth with 2.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.44
Wall Street Target
$148.36
(-2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.8%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.2% premium
PE vs Historical
23.4 vs 20.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$160.55
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$168.89
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$177.68
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23â20)
PE COMPRESSION
$152.35
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.4, Growth: 3.8%)
$170.46
(+12%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.8%)
$144.42
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 3.8%)
$122.75
(-20%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.12
Bull Case
$262.75
(+72%)
Analyst growth 58.0%, PE expands to 40.4
Base Case
$238.87
(+57%)
Market implied 58.0%, PE stable at 36.7
Bear Case
$102.80
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MTN)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 7, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
The recycled metals market is projected to expand at a CAGR of 8.2% between 2026 and 2032, driven by decarbonization initiatives, circular economy policies, and material supply constraints. Advanced recycling technologies are improving recovery rates, material purity, and supply chain transparency.
Key Retail Themes:
Market growth drivers
Advancements in recycling technologies
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 6:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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Sells
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NEUTRAL
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Advanced MTN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTN price and gamma walls.
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