What is the fair value of MTN stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MTN to be between $134.24 and $144.89. The current price is $141.16.

What is the analyst price target for MTN?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MTN is $143.85. This implies a potential upside of 1.9% from current levels.

Vail Resorts (MTN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MTN - Vail Resorts, Inc.

SERVICES-MISCELLANEOUS AMUSEMENT & RECREATION

$141.16

2.17 (1.56%) ▲

5d: +3.71%

30d: +3.57%

90d: -0.68%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your MTN Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 28, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 29, 2026 at $141.29 · last confirmed Oct 2, 2026

Strength: 3.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTN trades at premium valuation expecting 6.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$230.49

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$143.12

1.4% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MTN is currently trading at $141.16, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $134.24 to $144.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.5) compared to its historical average (19.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.1% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $144.24. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: MTN scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $134.24 - $144.89

Company Quality Score 59/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 81.9%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($143.85)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.1% growth with 2.5% revenue growth
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 10% over 20 days — wait for relative strength

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $134.24 - $144.89

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $132.59

Resistance Level $144.24

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 23.49

Wall Street Target $143.85 (+1.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 2.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -15.8%

Profit Margin 5.2%

Valuation Premium vs History +6.1% premium

PE vs Historical 23.5 vs 19.7 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +6.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $149.77 (+6%)

2-Year Target $158.91 (+13%)

3-Year Target $168.60 (+19%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 23→20) PE COMPRESSION $141.37 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 23.5, Growth: 42.4%) $407.36 (+189%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 42.4%) $353.70 (+151%)

Bear: (PE: 17.3, Growth: 42.4%) $300.65 (+113%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 29.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.64

Bull Case $197.97 (+40%)

Analyst growth 29.5%, PE expands to 33.0

Base Case $179.97 (+28%)

Market implied 29.5%, PE stable at 30.0

Bear Case $94.51 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 04, 2026 9:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:47 AM

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