MTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTN - Vail Resorts, Inc.
$147.64
-3.83 (-2.53%)
▼
5d:
+3.13%
30d:
+8.29%
90d:
+13.41%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 08, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$226.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$140.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTN is currently trading at $147.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $133.15 to $143.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.6) compared to its historical average (18.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$133.15 -
$143.08
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($148.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.3% growth with -7.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$133.15 -
$143.08
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$125.71
Resistance Level
$139.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.60
Wall Street Target
$148.50
(+0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.8%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.3% premium
PE vs Historical
23.6 vs 18.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$159.89
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$173.17
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$187.54
(+27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$147.82
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.6, Growth: 44.0%)
$440.64
(+199%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 44.0%)
$406.69
(+176%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 44.0%)
$345.69
(+134%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.64
Bull Case
$222.69
(+51%)
Analyst growth 34.8%, PE expands to 35.6
Base Case
$202.44
(+37%)
Market implied 34.8%, PE stable at 32.4
Bear Case
$102.10
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Angela A Korch
BUY
190 shares
2026-03-16
Robert A Katz
BUY
37500 shares
2026-03-16
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTN price and gamma walls.
