Vail Resorts (MTN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTN - Vail Resorts, Inc.
$140.09
6.76 (5.07%)
▲
5d:
+2.96%
30d:
-5.57%
90d:
+2.75%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 28, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTN trades at premium valuation expecting 5.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MTN trades at premium valuation expecting 5.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$235.52
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$146.24
4.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTN is currently trading at $140.09, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $137.35 to $150.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.5) compared to its historical average (19.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $129.01, while resistance sits at $145.54. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $129.01, while resistance sits at $145.54. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$137.35 -
$150.96
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MTN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (56/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($147.23)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.0% growth with -7.0% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (56/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$137.35 -
$150.96
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$129.01
Resistance Level
$145.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.47
Wall Street Target
$147.23
(+5.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.8%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.0% premium
PE vs Historical
22.5 vs 19.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$147.09
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$154.45
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$162.17
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$140.01
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.5, Growth: 43.8%)
$416.43
(+197%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 43.8%)
$373.78
(+167%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 43.8%)
$317.72
(+127%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.75
Bull Case
$192.49
(+37%)
Analyst growth 31.2%, PE expands to 30.9
Base Case
$174.99
(+25%)
Market implied 31.2%, PE stable at 28.1
Bear Case
$90.66
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 14, 2026 3:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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