NHI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NHI - National Health Investors
$75.21
2.18 (2.99%)
▲
5d:
+5.01%
30d:
-1.58%
90d:
-8.9%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NHI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NHI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.60
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NHI is currently trading at $75.21, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.27 to $75.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.2) is in line with its historical norms (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NHI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.50 (+11.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $76.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NHI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $83.50 (+11.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$70.27 -
$75.48
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($83.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.27 -
$75.48
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$67.94
Resistance Level
$76.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.16
Wall Street Target
$83.50
(+11.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.0%
Profit Margin
36.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 22.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.48
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$71.79
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$70.14
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→23)
$75.25
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -3.0%)
$70.61
(+-6%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.2, Growth: -3.0%)
$68.59
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.0, Growth: -3.0%)
$58.30
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$89.50
(+23%)
Analyst growth 14.7%, PE expands to 25.2
Base Case
$81.37
(+11%)
Market implied 14.7%, PE stable at 22.9
Bear Case
$48.25
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.2 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$80.69
(+7.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NHI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-15
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