National Health Investors (NHI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NHI - National Health Investors
$65.72
0.64 (0.98%)
▲
5d:
-1.79%
30d:
-8.1%
90d:
-13.53%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NHI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NHI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.82
Based on -36.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NHI is currently trading at $65.72, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.94 to $71.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.2) compared to its historical average (22.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.88 (+24.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.88 (+24.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$66.94 -
$71.81
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.6% below Wall St target ($81.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.94 -
$71.81
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.56
Resistance Level
$68.71
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.24
Wall Street Target
$81.88
(+24.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.2%
Profit Margin
38.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 22.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.42
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$61.20
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$59.06
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→23)
$65.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -77.7%)
$48.28
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: -77.7%)
$47.91
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: -77.7%)
$40.72
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 18.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.46
Bull Case
$67.17
(+2%)
Analyst growth -6.2%, PE expands to 20.7
Base Case
$61.07
(-7%)
Market implied -6.2%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$44.25
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.2 to 22.5
Stabilization Target:
$73.05
(+11.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 11:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NHI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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