National Health Investors (NHI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NHI - National Health Investors
$70.32
0.11 (0.16%)
▲
5d:
-2.21%
30d:
-0.58%
90d:
-2.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NHI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NHI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.84
Based on -36.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.38
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NHI is currently trading at $70.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.90 to $74.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.7) is in line with its historical norms (22.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $69.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.88 (+16.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $69.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.88 (+16.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$70.90 -
$74.07
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($81.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.90 -
$74.07
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.73
Resistance Level
$73.01
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.66
Wall Street Target
$81.88
(+16.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.0%
Profit Margin
38.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 22.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$69.27
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$68.23
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$67.20
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$70.12
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.7, Growth: -77.7%)
$51.26
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: -77.7%)
$47.74
(-32%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -77.7%)
$40.58
(-42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 20.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.46
Bull Case
$72.47
(+3%)
Analyst growth -6.2%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$65.88
(-6%)
Market implied -6.2%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$47.74
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.7 to 22.6
Stabilization Target:
$73.37
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 6:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NHI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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