NHI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NHI - National Health Investors
$73.36
-0.55 (-0.74%)
▼
5d:
+0.56%
30d:
-8.24%
90d:
-4.17%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NHI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NHI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.85
Based on -36.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NHI is currently trading at $73.36, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.84 to $79.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.6) is in line with its historical norms (22.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NHI scores 83/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.75 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $75.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NHI scores 83/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.75 (+12.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$72.84 -
$79.13
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (83/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($82.75)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 83/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$72.84 -
$79.13
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.48
Resistance Level
$75.52
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.60
Wall Street Target
$82.75
(+12.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.0%
Profit Margin
38.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.6 vs 22.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.29
(0%)
2-Year Target
$73.21
(0%)
3-Year Target
$73.14
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→23)
$73.48
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.6, Growth: -77.7%)
$53.48
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: -77.7%)
$47.50
(-35%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -77.7%)
$40.38
(-45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 21.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.45
Bull Case
$76.51
(+4%)
Analyst growth -5.9%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$69.55
(-5%)
Market implied -5.9%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$50.26
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.6 to 22.7
Stabilization Target:
$73.70
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 5:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NHI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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