National Health Investors (NHI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NHI - National Health Investors
$67.06
0.10 (0.15%)
â˛
5d:
+1.18%
30d:
-0.15%
90d:
-15.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 09, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NHI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NHI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.41
Based on -5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NHI is currently trading at $67.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.96 to $67.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.4) compared to its historical average (22.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $67.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NHI scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.50 (+17.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $67.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NHI scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.50 (+17.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$64.96 -
$67.96
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (69/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($78.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.96 -
$67.96
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.43
Resistance Level
$67.94
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.44
Wall Street Target
$78.50
(+17.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.2%
Profit Margin
38.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.4 vs 22.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.04
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$61.16
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$58.41
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19â22)
$67.01
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -14.9%)
$49.95
(+-26%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.4, Growth: -14.9%)
$48.89
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.5, Growth: -14.9%)
$41.55
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 19.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.39
Bull Case
$72.68
(+9%)
Analyst growth 1.8%, PE expands to 21.1
Base Case
$66.07
(-1%)
Market implied 1.8%, PE stable at 19.2
Bear Case
$44.15
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.4 to 22.3
Stabilization Target:
$76.94
(+14.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NHI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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