National Health Investors (NHI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$64.55
-1.47 (-2.23%)
▼
5d:
-9.82%
30d:
-1.24%
90d:
-11.51%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
44/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$64.65 – $68.94
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
18.7x
CHEAP
vs 22.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$78.50
+21.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$64.51 / $72.62
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NHI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.15
Based on -5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NHI is currently trading at $64.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.65 to $68.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.7) compared to its historical average (22.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1562.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.50 (+21.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NHI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $78.50 (+21.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$64.65 -
$68.94
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$64.65 -
$68.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$64.51
Resistance Level
$72.62
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.6% below Wall St target ($78.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.71
Wall Street Target
$78.50
(+21.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1562.3%
Profit Margin
151.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.7 vs 22.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.00
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$57.64
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$54.47
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→22)
$64.63
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -14.9%)
$49.95
(+-23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.7, Growth: -14.9%)
$47.06
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: -14.9%)
$40.00
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.32
Bull Case
$36.31
(-44%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 5.1
Base Case
$33.01
(-49%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 4.6
Bear Case
$44.89
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.7 to 22.2
Stabilization Target:
$76.59
(+18.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NHI)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jun 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
CEO Eric Mendelsohn purchased 1,500 shares of $NHI at $68.84, increasing his total holdings to 133,316 shares.
Key Retail Themes:
CEO buying shares
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NHI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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