NMFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMFC - NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION
$7.56
0.01 (0.13%)
â˛
5d:
-2.2%
30d:
+10.85%
90d:
-5.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NMFC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NMFC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.75
Based on 0.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMFC is currently trading at $7.56, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.97 to $7.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 157.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMFC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NMFC scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMFC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NMFC scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$6.97 -
$7.63
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NMFC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($8.29)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.97 -
$7.63
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$0.50
(6.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.45
Resistance Level
$7.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.20
Wall Street Target
$8.29
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-26.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
157.1%
Profit Margin
-16.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.54
(0%)
2-Year Target
$7.53
(0%)
3-Year Target
$7.51
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7â7)
$7.62
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -3.5%)
$18.91
(+150%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: -3.5%)
$6.78
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: -3.5%)
$5.77
(-24%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$7.66
(+1.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Adam B Weinstein
BUY
12900 shares
2026-03-17
Steven B Klinsky
BUY
276242 shares
2026-03-11
Steven B Klinsky
BUY
223758 shares
2026-03-10
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Advanced NMFC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NMFC price and gamma walls.
