NMFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMFC - NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION
$6.99
-0.08 (-1.13%)
▼
5d:
-1.83%
30d:
-12.08%
90d:
-12.52%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMFC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMFC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.67
Based on 0.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMFC is currently trading at $6.99, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.96 to $7.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMFC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Implied Volatility is high (100th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.54 (+22.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMFC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Implied Volatility is high (100th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.54 (+22.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$6.96 -
$7.73
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
100th percentile
(EVENT RISK)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Options expensive (IV 100th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.2% below Wall St target ($8.54)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.96 -
$7.73
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.90
(12.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.75
Resistance Level
$8.15
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.64
Wall Street Target
$8.54
(+22.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-19.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.8%
Profit Margin
-18.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.77
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$6.56
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$6.36
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$6.99
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -4.0%)
$20.27
(+190%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: -4.0%)
$6.18
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: -4.0%)
$5.25
(-25%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$7.69
(+10.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 8:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Adam B Weinstein
BUY
12900 shares
2026-03-17
Steven B Klinsky
BUY
276242 shares
2026-03-11
Steven B Klinsky
BUY
223758 shares
2026-03-10
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Advanced NMFC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NMFC price and gamma walls.
