NMFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMFC - NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION
$7.83
-0.27 (-3.33%)
▼
5d:
-2.73%
30d:
-8.53%
90d:
-3.93%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NMFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NMFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.67
Based on 0.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMFC is currently trading at $7.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.96 to $8.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.7) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMFC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: NMFC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMFC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: NMFC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.96 -
$8.39
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($8.54)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.5% growth with -19.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.96 -
$8.39
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.87
Resistance Level
$8.16
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.69
Wall Street Target
$8.54
(+5.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-19.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.8%
Profit Margin
-18.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.22
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$8.34
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$8.47
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.04
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -4.0%)
$20.39
(+152%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: -4.0%)
$7.16
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: -4.0%)
$6.09
(-25%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 4:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Adam B Weinstein
BUY
12900 shares
2026-03-17
Steven B Klinsky
BUY
276242 shares
2026-03-11
Steven B Klinsky
BUY
223758 shares
2026-03-10
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