NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE (NMFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$6.77
-0.07 (-1.02%)
âŧ
5d:
-4.65%
30d:
+0.89%
90d:
-13.09%
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Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (76%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$6.65 â $6.97
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.6x
FAIR
vs 7.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$8.13
+20.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$6.71 / $7.20
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NMFC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.25
Based on -0.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMFC is currently trading at $6.77, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.65 to $6.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.5) is in line with its historical norms (7.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMFC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.12 (+20.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMFC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.71. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.12 (+20.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$6.65 -
$6.97
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$6.65 -
$6.97
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$0.22
(3.3%)
Support Level
$6.71
Resistance Level
$7.20
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding NMFC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.12)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.55
Wall Street Target
$8.13
(+20.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-25.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.5%
Profit Margin
-21.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 7.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.59
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$6.41
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$6.24
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7â7)
$6.76
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -4.4%)
$17.97
(+166%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: -4.4%)
$5.92
(-13%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: -4.4%)
$5.03
(-26%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.5 to 7.1
Stabilization Target:
$7.34
(+8.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NMFC)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jun 24, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment dominates $NMFC on StockTwits with one message predicting a break above $7.22.
Key Retail Themes:
Anticipation of price increase
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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