NMFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMFC - NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION
$7.16
0.09 (1.27%)
▲
5d:
-7.97%
30d:
-10.72%
90d:
-8.21%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NMFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NMFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.67
Based on 0.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMFC is currently trading at $7.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.52 to $8.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMFC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.54 (+19.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMFC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.75. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.54 (+19.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.52 -
$8.13
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.54)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.0% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.52 -
$8.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.75
Resistance Level
$8.15
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.80
Wall Street Target
$8.54
(+19.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-19.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.8%
Profit Margin
-18.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.98
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$6.81
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$6.64
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$7.12
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -4.0%)
$20.27
(+183%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: -4.0%)
$6.33
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: -4.0%)
$5.38
(-25%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$7.69
(+7.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Adam B Weinstein
BUY
12900 shares
2026-03-17
Steven B Klinsky
BUY
276242 shares
2026-03-11
Steven B Klinsky
BUY
223758 shares
2026-03-10
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