NOV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOV - NOV Inc.
$19.48
0.05 (0.26%)
▲
5d:
-4.84%
30d:
+8.1%
90d:
-1.91%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NOV is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NOV is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.51
17.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOV is currently trading at $19.48, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.43 to $19.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOV is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $18.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.02 (+13.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOV is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $18.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.02 (+13.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$18.43 -
$19.96
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NOV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($22.02)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.43 -
$19.96
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.94
Resistance Level
$21.20
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.43
Wall Street Target
$22.03
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Profit Margin
1.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.52
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$19.56
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$19.60
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.56
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 46.8%)
$82.78
(+325%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 46.8%)
$61.62
(+216%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 46.8%)
$52.38
(+169%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 20.88 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.93
Bull Case
$23.52
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 21.9
Base Case
$19.48
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$14.90
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 6:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Craig L Weinstock
SELL
70000 shares
2026-02-23
Joseph W Rovig
SELL
151086 shares
2026-02-23
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