NOV NOV Inc. OIL & GAS FIELD MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT

NOV (NOV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$18.00
+0.32 (+1.81%) ▲
5d: -0.17% 30d: -5.06% 90d: -12.79%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
52/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$18.09 – $19.55
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
14.0x FAIR
vs 15.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$22.25
+23.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$17.24 / $19.57
Trend: Sideways
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.97
24.9% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: NOV is currently trading at $18.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.09 to $19.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 127.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, NOV is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $17.24, while resistance sits at $19.57.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.25 (+23.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $18.09 - $19.55
Company Quality Score 52/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 79.5%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $18.09 - $19.55
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD
Support Level $17.24
Resistance Level $19.57
Current Trend Sideways
Technical data as of Nov 11, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 23.6% below Wall St target ($22.25)
  • WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.98
Wall Street Target $22.25 (+23.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 127.3%
Profit Margin 1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History -3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical 14.0 vs 15.4 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -3.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $17.41 (-3%)
2-Year Target $16.83 (-7%)
3-Year Target $16.28 (-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→15) $17.93 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 41.5%) $72.44 (+303%)
Base: (SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 41.5%) $51.00 (+183%)
Bear: (PE: 11.9, Growth: 41.5%) $43.35 (+141%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.41
Bull Case $38.90 (+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.4
Base Case $35.36 (+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.1
Bear Case $12.02 (-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 15.4
Stabilization Target: $19.83 (+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential: +10.1%
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NOV)

Bearish 1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 28, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: NOV reported Q3 2026 earnings with a revenue beat and in-line EPS, resulting in a 2.3% year-on-year revenue growth. The company showed strong Adjusted EBITDA flowthrough and continued focus on supporting customers in the Middle East.
Key Retail Themes: Revenue growth Operational efficiency
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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