NOA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOA - North American Construction Group Ltd.
$13.55
0.06 (0.48%)
▲
5d:
-0.77%
30d:
+5.0%
90d:
-6.91%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.91
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.33
21.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOA is currently trading at $13.54, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.16 to $13.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.5) is in line with its historical norms (4.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $13.10, while resistance sits at $14.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.77 (+106.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $13.10, while resistance sits at $14.38.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.77 (+106.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$13.16 -
$13.76
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 106.0% below Wall St target ($27.77)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.16 -
$13.76
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.10
Resistance Level
$14.38
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.51
Wall Street Target
$27.77
(+106.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.5%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.5 vs 4.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.22
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$12.97
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$12.73
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→5)
$13.53
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 40.0%)
$169.75
(+1159%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.5, Growth: 40.0%)
$36.96
(+174%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.8, Growth: 40.0%)
$31.42
(+133%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.80
Bull Case
$29.92
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.7
Base Case
$27.20
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$9.25
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.5 to 4.8
Stabilization Target:
$14.33
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 12:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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