NOA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOA - North American Construction Group Ltd.
$12.47
-0.23 (-1.81%)
▼
5d:
-3.48%
30d:
-8.04%
90d:
-8.17%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.48
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.58
14.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOA is currently trading at $12.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.99 to $13.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.1) is in line with its historical norms (4.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOA scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.79 (+114.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NOA scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.79 (+114.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.99 -
$13.72
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 114.8% below Wall St target ($26.79)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.99 -
$13.72
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.44
Resistance Level
$13.74
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.07
Wall Street Target
$26.79
(+114.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.9%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
5.1 vs 4.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.64
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$12.82
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$13.00
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→5)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.57
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 35.2%)
$123.17
(+888%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.1, Growth: 35.2%)
$30.82
(+147%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: 35.2%)
$26.20
(+110%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.80
Bull Case
$27.94
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.5
Base Case
$25.40
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.9
Bear Case
$8.64
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 22, 2026 7:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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