NWE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NWE - NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. Common Stock
$68.90
0.16 (0.23%)
▲
5d:
-4.57%
30d:
-3.39%
90d:
-4.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NWE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NWE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.45
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NWE is currently trading at $68.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.33 to $72.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.3) is in line with its historical norms (17.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $68.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$70.33 -
$72.88
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($73.08)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.33 -
$72.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$68.49
Resistance Level
$73.48
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.31
Wall Street Target
$73.08
(+6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.6%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 17.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.47
(0%)
2-Year Target
$68.19
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$67.92
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$68.65
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 5.9%)
$97.67
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 5.9%)
$81.57
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 5.9%)
$69.34
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.69
Bull Case
$113.20
(+65%)
Analyst growth 47.6%, PE expands to 28.5
Base Case
$102.91
(+50%)
Market implied 47.6%, PE stable at 25.9
Bear Case
$47.42
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.3 to 17.5
Stabilization Target:
$69.48
(+1.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 4:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NWE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
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