PAGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAGS - PagSeguro Digital Ltd.
$9.26
-0.02 (-0.27%)
▼
5d:
+3.99%
30d:
+3.52%
90d:
-14.31%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PAGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.63
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.71
4.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAGS is currently trading at $9.26, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.70 to $9.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.0) compared to its historical average (1.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAGS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.09 (+30.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAGS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.09 (+30.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.70 -
$9.09
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.3% below Wall St target ($12.09)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.70 -
$9.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.49
Resistance Level
$9.52
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.96
Wall Street Target
$12.09
(+30.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.0 vs 1.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.91
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$8.55
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$8.21
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$9.45
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.9%)
$296.19
(+3092%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.0, Growth: 11.9%)
$13.00
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.8, Growth: 11.9%)
$11.05
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.45
Bull Case
$20.35
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 7.0
Base Case
$18.50
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 6.4
Bear Case
$6.29
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.0 to 1.1
Stabilization Target:
$10.68
(+15.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Alexandre Mr Magnani
SELL
200000 shares
2026-04-17
Luis Frias
BUY
498500 shares
2026-03-27
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