PAGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAGS - PagSeguro Digital Ltd.
$8.76
-0.05 (-0.57%)
▼
5d:
-1.24%
30d:
-6.01%
90d:
-12.31%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAGS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PAGS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.62
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.70
9.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAGS is currently trading at $8.76, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.72 to $9.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.9) compared to its historical average (1.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.49, while resistance sits at $9.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.98 (+36.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.49, while resistance sits at $9.52.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.98 (+36.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$8.72 -
$9.25
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.7% below Wall St target ($11.98)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.72 -
$9.25
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.49
Resistance Level
$9.52
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.90
Wall Street Target
$11.98
(+36.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.9 vs 1.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.20
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$7.67
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$7.18
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$8.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.9%)
$296.28
(+3282%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.9, Growth: 11.9%)
$12.28
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.8, Growth: 11.9%)
$10.44
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.42
Bull Case
$19.38
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 6.8
Base Case
$17.62
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 6.2
Bear Case
$5.99
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.9 to 1.1
Stabilization Target:
$10.67
(+21.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 8:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Alexandre Mr Magnani
SELL
200000 shares
2026-04-17
Luis Frias
BUY
498500 shares
2026-03-27
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