PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAGS - PagSeguro Digital Ltd.
$9.02
0.15 (1.69%)
▲
5d:
-0.33%
30d:
-8.33%
90d:
+1.01%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 29, 2026 at $8.76 · last confirmed Sep 30, 2026
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PAGS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PAGS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.57
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.67
6.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAGS is currently trading at $9.02, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.90 to $9.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.9) compared to its historical average (1.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.66, while resistance sits at $9.56.
Market Sentiment: PAGS scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.21 (+24.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.66, while resistance sits at $9.56.
Market Sentiment: PAGS scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.21 (+24.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$8.90 -
$9.74
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAGS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.2% below Wall St target ($11.21)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 24% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.90 -
$9.74
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.66
Resistance Level
$9.56
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.94
Wall Street Target
$11.21
(+24.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.1%
Profit Margin
10.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.9 vs 1.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.68
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$8.35
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$8.03
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$9.38
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 12.3%)
$276.60
(+2967%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.9, Growth: 12.3%)
$12.76
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.8, Growth: 12.3%)
$10.85
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$19.51
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 6.8
Base Case
$17.74
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 6.2
Bear Case
$6.03
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.9 to 1.1
Stabilization Target:
$10.54
(+16.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Alexandre Mr Magnani
SELL
200000 shares
2026-04-17
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Advanced PAGS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAGS price and gamma walls.