PAGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAGS - PagSeguro Digital Ltd.
$8.62
0.18 (2.13%)
▲
5d:
-1.15%
30d:
-8.88%
90d:
-7.51%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAGS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAGS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.21
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.44
8.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAGS is currently trading at $8.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.78 to $9.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.9) compared to its historical average (1.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.62 (+37.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAGS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.62 (+37.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.78 -
$9.56
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAGS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.6% below Wall St target ($11.62)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.78 -
$9.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.42
Resistance Level
$9.17
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.88
Wall Street Target
$11.62
(+37.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.1%
Profit Margin
10.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.9 vs 1.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.91
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$7.41
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$6.94
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$8.69
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 11.2%)
$264.82
(+3038%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.9, Growth: 11.2%)
$11.60
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.7, Growth: 11.2%)
$9.86
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.46
Bull Case
$18.90
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 6.5
Base Case
$17.18
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 5.9
Bear Case
$5.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.9 to 1.1
Stabilization Target:
$10.56
(+25.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Alexandre Mr Magnani
SELL
200000 shares
2026-04-17
Luis Frias
BUY
498500 shares
2026-03-27
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