RARE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RARE - Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
$29.11
0.35 (1.22%)
▲
5d:
+17.14%
30d:
+24.45%
90d:
+57.35%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: RARE is 10.2% above its trading range ($26.41). Market expects -42.7% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: RARE is 10.2% above its trading range ($26.41). Market expects -42.7% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.81
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RARE is currently trading at $29.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.07 to $26.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 30.2) compared to its historical average (160.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 42.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.43, while resistance sits at $30.14.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.05 (+78.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.43, while resistance sits at $30.14.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.05 (+78.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.07 -
$26.41
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
Protect Your Profits
RARE is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.2% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 78.8% below Wall St target ($52.05)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.07 -
$26.41
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.43
Resistance Level
$30.14
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.16
Wall Street Target
$52.05
(+78.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Profit Margin
-90.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-42.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.2 vs 160.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-42.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.20
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$23.58
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$21.22
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→160)
$112.66
(+287%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.2 to 160.1
Stabilization Target:
$154.54
(+430.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+430.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 8:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RARE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard Horn
SELL
4683 shares
2026-04-01
Howard Horn
SELL
1635 shares
2026-03-03
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
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Advanced RARE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RARE price and gamma walls.
