Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$16.27
-0.43 (-2.57%)
âŧ
5d:
+4.5%
30d:
+9.19%
90d:
-38.58%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (43%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$15.00 â $16.56
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.4x
CHEAP
vs 84.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$25.35
+55.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$15.12 / $17.67
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RARE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -48.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.18
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.16
47.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RARE is currently trading at $16.27, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.00 to $16.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.4) compared to its historical average (84.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 48.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.12, while resistance sits at $17.67.
Market Sentiment: RARE scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.35 (+55.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.12, while resistance sits at $17.67.
Market Sentiment: RARE scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.35 (+55.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$15.00 -
$16.56
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$15.00 -
$16.56
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$15.12
Resistance Level
$17.67
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding RARE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.8% below Wall St target ($25.35)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.36
Wall Street Target
$25.35
(+55.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Profit Margin
-71.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-48.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 84.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-48.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.64
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.18
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$11.86
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â84)
$87.93
(+440%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 84.2
Stabilization Target:
$120.62
(+641.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+641.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (RARE)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 12, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish StockTwit message suggests that $RARE shorts are unwinding their positions, and analyst projections align with management's plans. The user anticipates a potential 40% upside in the next 12 months.
Key Retail Themes:
Shorts unwinding positions
Analyst projections aligning with management plans
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 4:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:39 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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