Is RARE stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, RARE is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: RARE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of RARE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for RARE to be between $25.21 and $31.96. The current price is $26.49.

What is the analyst price target for RARE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for RARE is $52.84. This implies a potential upside of 100.3% from current levels.

RARE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

RARE - Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

$26.49

0.11 (0.42%) ▲

5d: +2.24%

30d: -12.34%

90d: +2.67%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your RARE Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 04, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 10, 2026 at $26.04 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026

Strength: 7.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RARE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$92.27

Based on 7.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$57.29

53.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: RARE is currently trading at $26.49, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.21 to $31.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.0) compared to its historical average (110.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 55.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.01, while resistance sits at $28.48.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.84 (+100.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $25.21 - $31.96

Company Quality Score 57/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 100.3% below Wall St target ($52.84)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (48/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $25.21 - $31.96

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $24.01

Resistance Level $28.48

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.01

Wall Street Target $52.84 (+100.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 28.1%

Profit Margin -81.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -55.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 10.0 vs 110.0 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -55.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $23.74 (-10%)

2-Year Target $21.37 (-19%)

3-Year Target $19.23 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→110) $211.23 (+701%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.0 to 110.0

Stabilization Target: $289.75 (+998.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +998.4%

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Last updated: August 16, 2026 3:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Howard Horn SELL 4683 shares 2026-04-01

Howard Horn SELL 1635 shares 2026-03-03

Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. BUY 2026-03-03

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Advanced RARE Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RARE price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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