RARE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RARE - Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
$33.22
-0.60 (-1.77%)
▼
5d:
-1.42%
30d:
+44.62%
90d:
+42.58%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
20d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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1 traders called RARE this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RARE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -46.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RARE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -46.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.31
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.72
1.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RARE is currently trading at $33.22, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.28 to $33.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.4) compared to its historical average (138.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 46.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.19, while resistance sits at $36.57.
Market Sentiment: RARE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.32 (+57.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.19, while resistance sits at $36.57.
Market Sentiment: RARE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.32 (+57.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$24.28 -
$33.27
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 57.5% below Wall St target ($52.32)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.28 -
$33.27
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.19
Resistance Level
$36.57
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.43
Wall Street Target
$52.32
(+57.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Profit Margin
-90.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-46.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.4 vs 138.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-46.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.90
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$26.91
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$24.22
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→139)
$156.53
(+371%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.4 to 138.5
Stabilization Target:
$214.72
(+546.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+546.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RARE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard Horn
SELL
4683 shares
2026-04-01
Howard Horn
SELL
1635 shares
2026-03-03
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
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Advanced RARE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RARE price and gamma walls.
