Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RARE - Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
$15.65
-0.30 (-1.88%)
▼
5d:
+7.63%
30d:
+5.96%
90d:
-41.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RARE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RARE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.90
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RARE is currently trading at $15.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.13 to $15.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 69.4) compared to its historical average (86.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.44, while resistance sits at $16.31.
Market Sentiment: RARE scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.25 (+67.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.44, while resistance sits at $16.31.
Market Sentiment: RARE scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.25 (+67.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.13 -
$15.59
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RARE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 67.7% below Wall St target ($26.25)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.13 -
$15.59
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.44
Resistance Level
$16.31
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
69.37
Wall Street Target
$26.25
(+67.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.1%
Profit Margin
-81.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
69.4 vs 86.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.52
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$13.48
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$12.51
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 69→87)
$15.63
(0%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 69.4 to 86.7
Stabilization Target:
$19.56
(+25.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 10:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RARE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced RARE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RARE price and gamma walls.
