Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RARE - Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
$15.22
0.47 (3.19%)
â˛
5d:
+4.97%
30d:
-42.63%
90d:
-54.84%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RARE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -37.6% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RARE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -37.6% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.70
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RARE is currently trading at $15.22, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.56 to $22.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.5) compared to its historical average (92.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 37.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.11, while resistance sits at $16.12. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.05 (+84.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.11, while resistance sits at $16.12. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.05 (+84.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$12.56 -
$22.87
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RARE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 84.3% below Wall St target ($28.05)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.56 -
$22.87
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.11
Resistance Level
$16.12
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.49
Wall Street Target
$28.05
(+84.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.1%
Profit Margin
-81.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-37.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.5 vs 92.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-37.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.70
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$12.33
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$11.10
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22â93)
$45.63
(+200%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.5 to 92.5
Stabilization Target:
$62.59
(+311.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+311.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced RARE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RARE price and gamma walls.
