RARE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RARE - Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
$24.94
0.03 (0.12%)
▲
5d:
-7.25%
30d:
-25.49%
90d:
+0.69%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RARE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RARE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.48
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.98
63.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RARE is currently trading at $24.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.02 to $33.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (120.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 59.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.01, while resistance sits at $29.10.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.37 (+114.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.01, while resistance sits at $29.10.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.37 (+114.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$27.02 -
$33.22
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RARE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 114.2% below Wall St target ($53.37)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.02 -
$33.22
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.01
Resistance Level
$29.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.97
Wall Street Target
$53.37
(+114.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Profit Margin
-90.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-59.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 120.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-59.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.42
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$20.18
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$18.16
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→121)
$275.47
(+1006%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 120.9
Stabilization Target:
$377.87
(+1417.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1417.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RARE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard Horn
SELL
4683 shares
2026-04-01
Howard Horn
SELL
1635 shares
2026-03-03
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
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Advanced RARE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RARE price and gamma walls.
