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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

RARE - Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS
$14.30
-0.10 (-0.69%) ▼
5d: -3.7%
30d: -46.76%
90d: -40.37%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 18, 2026 at $25.27 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RARE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.07
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.39
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: RARE is currently trading at $14.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.04 to $28.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 70.9) compared to its historical average (99.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $13.81, while resistance sits at $26.80.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.00 (+88.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $19.04 - $28.28
Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 88.8% below Wall St target ($27.00)
  • WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $19.04 - $28.28
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $13.81
Resistance Level $26.80
Current Trend Sideways
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 70.86
Wall Street Target $27.00 (+88.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 28.1%
Profit Margin -81.7%
Valuation Discount vs History -10.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical 70.9 vs 99.7 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -10.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $12.87 (-10%)
2-Year Target $11.58 (-19%)
3-Year Target $10.42 (-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 71→100) $14.67 (+3%)
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 70.9 to 99.7
Stabilization Target: $20.12 (+40.7%)
PE Expansion Potential: +40.7%
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Last updated: September 13, 2026 7:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check

Is RARE showing a specific setup today?

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard Horn SELL 4683 shares 2026-04-01

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Advanced RARE Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RARE price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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