RARE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RARE - Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
$28.76
-0.27 (-0.93%)
▼
5d:
+13.32%
30d:
+21.3%
90d:
+41.88%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: RARE is 10.5% above its trading range ($26.03). Market expects -43.2% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: RARE is 10.5% above its trading range ($26.03). Market expects -43.2% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.81
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RARE is currently trading at $28.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.13 to $26.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 29.8) compared to its historical average (162.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 43.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $29.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.05 (+81.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RARE is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $29.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.05 (+81.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.13 -
$26.03
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RARE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.5% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 81.0% below Wall St target ($52.05)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.13 -
$26.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.03
Resistance Level
$29.39
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.79
Wall Street Target
$52.05
(+81.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Profit Margin
-90.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-43.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.8 vs 162.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-43.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.88
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$23.30
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$20.97
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→162)
$114.21
(+297%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.8 to 162.3
Stabilization Target:
$156.67
(+444.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+444.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RARE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Howard Horn
SELL
4683 shares
2026-04-01
Howard Horn
SELL
1635 shares
2026-03-03
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
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Advanced RARE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RARE price and gamma walls.
