Is RIG stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, RIG is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RIG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of RIG stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for RIG to be between $5.09 and $5.72. The current price is $5.92.

What is the analyst price target for RIG?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for RIG is $6.52. This implies a potential upside of 8.5% from current levels.

RIG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

RIG - Transocean LTD.

DRILLING OIL & GAS WELLS

$5.92

-0.09 (-1.50%) ▼

5d: +2.78%

30d: +11.28%

90d: -13.2%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your RIG Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 05, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $5.26 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026

Strength: 8.3/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RIG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$13.83

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$8.59

31.0% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: RIG is currently trading at $5.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.09 to $5.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.2) compared to its historical average (31.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, RIG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $5.36, while resistance sits at $6.14.

Market Sentiment: RIG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $5.09 - $5.72

Company Quality Score 33/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 23.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($6.52)
WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $5.09 - $5.72

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $5.36

Resistance Level $6.14

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 21.16

Wall Street Target $6.52 (+8.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -2.2%

Profit Margin -40.2%

Valuation Discount vs History -12.8% cheaper

PE vs Historical 21.2 vs 31.9 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -12.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $5.41 (-10%)

2-Year Target $4.87 (-19%)

3-Year Target $4.38 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 21→32) $6.60 (+10%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.2, Growth: 66.4%) $20.28 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 66.4%) $19.24 (+220%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 66.4%) $16.35 (+172%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.2 to 31.9

Stabilization Target: $9.06 (+50.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +50.7%

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:10 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Roderick James Mackenzie SELL 78370 shares 2026-03-04

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Advanced RIG Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RIG price and gamma walls.

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