SAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAR - SARATOGA INVESTMENT CORP. NEW
$19.61
0.20 (1.03%)
▲
5d:
+7.93%
30d:
-11.75%
90d:
-14.66%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SAR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SAR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.79
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAR is currently trading at $19.61, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.48 to $22.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.34, while resistance sits at $22.15.
Market Sentiment: SAR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.34, while resistance sits at $22.15.
Market Sentiment: SAR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$19.48 -
$22.71
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($21.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.48 -
$22.71
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.34
Resistance Level
$22.15
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.38
Wall Street Target
$21.20
(+8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
12.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.94
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$18.30
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$17.68
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$19.62
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: -2.1%)
$46.06
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: -2.1%)
$18.37
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: -2.1%)
$15.62
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.97
Bull Case
$42.70
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$38.82
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$13.20
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$21.76
(+11.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 19, 2026 3:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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