SAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAR - SARATOGA INVESTMENT CORP. NEW
$20.01
0.52 (2.67%)
â˛
5d:
+4.76%
30d:
+14.67%
90d:
-10.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SAR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SAR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.54
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAR is currently trading at $20.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.41 to $20.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$18.41 -
$20.65
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($21.20)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.41 -
$20.65
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.76
Resistance Level
$20.04
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.55
Wall Street Target
$21.20
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
12.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.51
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$19.02
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$18.55
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â9)
$19.95
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -2.1%)
$44.35
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: -2.1%)
$18.75
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: -2.1%)
$15.94
(-20%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.00
Bull Case
$42.88
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.4
Base Case
$38.98
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.5
Bear Case
$13.25
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$21.53
(+7.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 09, 2026 12:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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