SAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAR - SARATOGA INVESTMENT CORP. NEW
$16.80
-0.31 (-1.81%)
▼
5d:
-4.38%
30d:
-8.35%
90d:
-24.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 06, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SAR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SAR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.05
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAR is currently trading at $16.80, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.27 to $18.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.2) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.20 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.20 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.27 -
$18.27
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($21.20)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.27 -
$18.27
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.72
Resistance Level
$18.08
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.18
Wall Street Target
$21.20
(+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
12.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 9.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.59
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$14.47
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$13.43
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$16.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -2.1%)
$44.72
(+166%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: -2.1%)
$15.74
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: -2.1%)
$13.38
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.97
Bull Case
$37.64
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.4
Base Case
$34.22
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$11.63
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$21.06
(+25.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 29, 2026 7:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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