SAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAR - SARATOGA INVESTMENT CORP. NEW
$13.86
0.17 (1.24%)
▲
5d:
-8.94%
30d:
-20.62%
90d:
-26.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SAR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SAR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.56
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAR is currently trading at $13.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.86 to $17.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.9) compared to its historical average (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SAR scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+44.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SAR scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.00 (+44.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.86 -
$17.42
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.3% below Wall St target ($20.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.86 -
$17.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.52
Resistance Level
$15.48
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.92
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(+44.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
-3.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 8.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.47
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.23
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.10
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→9)
$15.01
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -2.1%)
$43.54
(+214%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: -2.1%)
$12.99
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: -2.1%)
$11.04
(-20%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$20.59
(+48.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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