SAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAR - SARATOGA INVESTMENT CORP. NEW
$17.64
-0.13 (-0.73%)
▼
5d:
-3.29%
30d:
-9.49%
90d:
-21.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 06, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SAR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SAR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.30
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.85
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAR is currently trading at $17.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.25 to $19.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.20 (+20.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.20 (+20.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.25 -
$19.44
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.2% below Wall St target ($21.20)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.25 -
$19.44
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.45
Resistance Level
$18.59
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.54
Wall Street Target
$21.20
(+20.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
12.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 9.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.56
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$15.55
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$14.60
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$17.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -2.1%)
$44.35
(+151%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: -2.1%)
$16.53
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: -2.1%)
$14.05
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.95
Bull Case
$39.09
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$35.54
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$12.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$21.29
(+20.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 06, 2026 10:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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