SFNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFNC - Simmons First National Corp
$23.04
0.02 (0.11%)
â˛
5d:
-3.78%
30d:
-0.63%
90d:
+7.94%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SFNC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SFNC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.44
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFNC is currently trading at $23.04, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.00 to $23.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFNC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $22.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$23.00 -
$23.83
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.00 -
$23.83
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.73
Resistance Level
$24.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.76
Wall Street Target
$25.00
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.39
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$25.12
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$25.88
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.56
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.4%)
$54.82
(+132%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 7.4%)
$29.34
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 7.4%)
$24.94
(+5%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 2:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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