STNE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STNE - StoneCo Ltd. Class A Common Shares
$11.28
-0.10 (-0.88%)
▼
5d:
+3.54%
30d:
+0.94%
90d:
+1.67%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STNE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: STNE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.49
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.97
19.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STNE is currently trading at $11.28, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.79 to $11.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.9) compared to its historical average (1.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 273.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STNE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STNE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.95 (+39.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STNE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: STNE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.95 (+39.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.79 -
$11.25
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.6% below Wall St target ($15.95)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.79 -
$11.25
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.68
Resistance Level
$11.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.94
Wall Street Target
$15.95
(+39.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
273.8%
Profit Margin
25.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.9 vs 1.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.71
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$10.04
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$9.40
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$11.04
(-4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 18.0%)
$417.23
(+3550%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.9, Growth: 18.0%)
$18.79
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.8, Growth: 18.0%)
$15.97
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (4x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 4.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.67
Bull Case
$24.11
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 4.5
Base Case
$21.92
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 4.1
Bear Case
$7.45
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.9 to 1.1
Stabilization Target:
$13.41
(+17.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STNE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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