STNE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STNE - StoneCo Ltd. Class A Common Shares
$9.41
-0.01 (-0.11%)
▼
5d:
+1.18%
30d:
-9.26%
90d:
-14.06%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: STNE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: STNE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.99
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.03
27.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STNE is currently trading at $9.41, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.39 to $10.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.8) compared to its historical average (1.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STNE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.95, while resistance sits at $10.01.
Market Sentiment: STNE scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.96 (+58.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STNE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.95, while resistance sits at $10.01.
Market Sentiment: STNE scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.96 (+58.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.39 -
$10.03
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.9% below Wall St target ($14.96)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.39 -
$10.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.95
Resistance Level
$10.01
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.79
Wall Street Target
$14.97
(+58.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.6%
Profit Margin
24.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.8 vs 1.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.48
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.63
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.87
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$9.56
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 15.9%)
$378.71
(+3920%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.8, Growth: 15.9%)
$14.67
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.7, Growth: 15.9%)
$12.47
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (4x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 3.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.63
Bull Case
$20.55
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 3.9
Base Case
$18.68
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 3.6
Bear Case
$6.35
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.8 to 1.1
Stabilization Target:
$13.11
(+39.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STNE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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