STNE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STNE - StoneCo Ltd. Class A Common Shares
$11.15
-0.40 (-3.46%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.02%
30d:
+17.49%
90d:
+3.62%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 12, 2026
20d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 6, 2026 at $11.62 · last confirmed Oct 20, 2026
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: STNE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: STNE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.61
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.80
12.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STNE is currently trading at $11.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.45 to $11.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.0) compared to its historical average (1.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STNE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: STNE scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.33 (+32.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STNE is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: STNE scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.33 (+32.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.45 -
$11.66
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding STNE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 32.8% below Wall St target ($15.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.45 -
$11.66
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.99
Resistance Level
$12.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.97
Wall Street Target
$15.33
(+32.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.6%
Profit Margin
24.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.0 vs 1.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.15
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$10.76
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$10.38
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1â1)
$11.80
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.0%)
$360.85
(+3024%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.0, Growth: 15.0%)
$17.58
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.8, Growth: 15.0%)
$14.94
(+29%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (5x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 4.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.58
Bull Case
$26.55
(+130%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 5.2
Base Case
$24.14
(+109%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 4.7
Bear Case
$8.21
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.0 to 1.1
Stabilization Target:
$13.13
(+13.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STNE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced STNE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's STNE price and gamma walls.
