STNE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STNE - StoneCo Ltd. Class A Common Shares
$10.10
-0.20 (-1.94%)
▼
5d:
-2.13%
30d:
+1.0%
90d:
-10.22%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: STNE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -8.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: STNE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -8.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.70
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.72
31.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STNE is currently trading at $10.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.42 to $10.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.8) compared to its historical average (1.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STNE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.33, while resistance sits at $10.80.
Market Sentiment: STNE scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.25 (+50.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STNE is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.33, while resistance sits at $10.80.
Market Sentiment: STNE scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.25 (+50.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.42 -
$10.62
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.9% below Wall St target ($15.25)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.42 -
$10.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.33
Resistance Level
$10.80
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.84
Wall Street Target
$15.25
(+50.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.6%
Profit Margin
24.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.8 vs 1.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.20
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$8.38
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$7.64
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$10.02
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 21.0%)
$429.80
(+4155%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.8, Growth: 21.0%)
$17.87
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.7, Growth: 21.0%)
$15.19
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (4x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 3.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.79
Bull Case
$22.66
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 4.1
Base Case
$20.60
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 3.7
Bear Case
$7.00
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.8 to 1.1
Stabilization Target:
$13.25
(+31.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 12:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STNE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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