TAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAL - TAL Education Group
$10.34
0.03 (0.29%)
▲
5d:
+4.34%
30d:
+11.18%
90d:
-6.0%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TAL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TAL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.74
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.26
15.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAL is currently trading at $10.34, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.18 to $9.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.1) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 535.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.59 (+50.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.59 (+50.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.18 -
$9.97
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.8% below Wall St target ($15.59)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.18 -
$9.97
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.07
Resistance Level
$10.31
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.12
Wall Street Target
$15.59
(+50.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
535.7%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.04
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$9.75
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$9.47
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$10.32
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 20.0%)
$29.63
(+187%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 20.0%)
$17.85
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 20.0%)
$15.17
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.92
Bull Case
$9.72
(-6%)
Analyst growth -14.3%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$8.83
(-15%)
Market implied -14.3%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$7.01
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$11.27
(+9.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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