TAL Education Group (TAL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAL - TAL Education Group
$12.16
0.09 (0.75%)
▲
5d:
-0.49%
30d:
-0.57%
90d:
+23.96%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TAL is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TAL is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.88
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.34
1.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAL is currently trading at $12.16, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.62 to $12.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.10 (+32.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.10 (+32.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$11.62 -
$12.08
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.4% below Wall St target ($16.10)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.62 -
$12.08
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.55
Resistance Level
$12.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.43
Wall Street Target
$16.10
(+32.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1360.0%
Profit Margin
28.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 14.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.43
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$12.70
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$12.98
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.12
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 20.0%)
$27.75
(+128%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 20.0%)
$20.99
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 20.0%)
$17.84
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.64
Bull Case
$6.64
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$6.04
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$8.21
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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