TAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAL - TAL Education Group
$12.50
0.16 (1.30%)
▲
5d:
+21.36%
30d:
+25.0%
90d:
+12.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: TAL is 14.2% above its trading range ($10.95). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: TAL is 14.2% above its trading range ($10.95). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.74
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAL is currently trading at $12.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.45 to $10.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.9) compared to its historical average (14.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.81 (+26.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.81 (+26.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.45 -
$10.95
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+14.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.5% below Wall St target ($15.81)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.45 -
$10.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.17
Resistance Level
$12.57
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.86
Wall Street Target
$15.81
(+26.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
535.7%
Profit Margin
17.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.95
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$13.42
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$13.90
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.53
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 20.0%)
$28.20
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$21.57
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 20.0%)
$18.34
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.04
Bull Case
$10.29
(-18%)
Analyst growth -24.2%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$9.35
(-25%)
Market implied -24.2%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$8.39
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 5:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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