TAL Education Group (TAL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAL - TAL Education Group
$10.55
-1.03 (-8.89%)
▼
5d:
-15.67%
30d:
-11.12%
90d:
+2.03%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TAL is down 15.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TAL is down 15.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.01
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.43
15.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAL is currently trading at $10.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.61 to $12.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1360.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: TAL scores 19/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.10 (+52.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: TAL scores 19/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.10 (+52.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.61 -
$12.54
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (19/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 52.6% below Wall St target ($16.10)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.61 -
$12.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.42
Resistance Level
$13.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.38
Wall Street Target
$16.10
(+52.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1360.0%
Profit Margin
28.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 14.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.27
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$9.99
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$9.72
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$10.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$27.02
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 20.0%)
$18.21
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 20.0%)
$15.48
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.56
Bull Case
$6.44
(-39%)
Analyst growth -49.5%, PE expands to 8.2
Base Case
$5.85
(-45%)
Market implied -49.5%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$7.87
(-25%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 14.5
Stabilization Target:
$11.43
(+8.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 9:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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