TAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAL - TAL Education Group
$11.32
-0.15 (-1.31%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.83%
30d:
+9.48%
90d:
+12.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TAL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TAL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.74
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.26
7.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAL is currently trading at $11.32, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.45 to $12.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TAL scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.01 (+32.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TAL scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.01 (+32.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.45 -
$12.17
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.1% below Wall St target ($16.01)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.45 -
$12.17
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.17
Resistance Level
$12.58
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.38
Wall Street Target
$16.01
(+32.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1360.0%
Profit Margin
28.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.41
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$12.71
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$13.01
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â14)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.10
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 20.0%)
$27.30
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 20.0%)
$20.92
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 20.0%)
$17.78
(+47%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.60
Bull Case
$6.62
(-42%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 8.3
Base Case
$6.01
(-47%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 7.5
Bear Case
$8.18
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 7:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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