TAL Education Group (TAL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$10.13
+0.04 (+0.45%)
▲
5d:
+2.17%
30d:
-19.9%
90d:
-12.72%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
77/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$9.97 – $12.27
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.8x
CHEAP
vs 14.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$15.18
+50.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$9.73 / $10.40
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TAL appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.9% annual earnings decline despite 1360% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.88
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.34
18.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAL is currently trading at $10.12, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.97 to $12.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.8) compared to its historical average (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1360.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TAL scores 99/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.18 (+50.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TAL scores 99/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.18 (+50.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$9.97 -
$12.27
Company Quality Score
77/100
(STRONG BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$9.97 -
$12.27
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$9.73
Resistance Level
$10.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (99/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.6% below Wall St target ($15.18)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 99/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.79
Wall Street Target
$15.18
(+50.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1360.0%
Profit Margin
22.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 14.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.69
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$9.31
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$8.95
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$10.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$27.02
(+168%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 20.0%)
$17.40
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 20.0%)
$14.79
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.31
Bull Case
$6.74
(-33%)
Analyst growth -39.8%, PE expands to 8.6
Base Case
$6.13
(-39%)
Market implied -39.8%, PE stable at 7.8
Bear Case
$6.93
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$11.35
(+12.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TAL)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
Dec 5, 2025
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on TAL are bullish (sentiment score +0.99) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 11:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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