TAL Education Group (TAL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAL - TAL Education Group
$11.81
0.31 (2.70%)
â˛
5d:
-1.5%
30d:
-0.51%
90d:
+26.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TAL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TAL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.88
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.34
4.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAL is currently trading at $11.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.57 to $12.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.0) is in line with its historical norms (14.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.38, while resistance sits at $12.53.
Market Sentiment: TAL scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.12 (+36.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.38, while resistance sits at $12.53.
Market Sentiment: TAL scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.12 (+36.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$11.57 -
$12.21
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($16.12)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.57 -
$12.21
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.39
Resistance Level
$12.53
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.98
Wall Street Target
$16.12
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1360.0%
Profit Margin
28.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
15.0 vs 14.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.96
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$12.12
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$12.28
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â14)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.80
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 20.0%)
$27.44
(+132%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 20.0%)
$20.38
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 20.0%)
$17.33
(+47%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.61
Bull Case
$6.33
(-46%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$5.75
(-51%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 7.1
Bear Case
$7.82
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 8:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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