TCBX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBX - Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock
$40.08
0.00 (-0.01%)
▼
5d:
+1.07%
30d:
+8.31%
90d:
+5.71%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TCBX is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: TCBX is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.32
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBX is currently trading at $40.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.23 to $39.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TCBX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TCBX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$37.23 -
$39.39
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($42.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.23 -
$39.39
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.20
Resistance Level
$40.59
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.54
Wall Street Target
$42.75
(+6.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Profit Margin
32.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.44
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$40.80
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$41.17
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$40.16
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$113.59
(+183%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 7.2%)
$49.41
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 7.2%)
$42.00
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89
Bull Case
$46.89
(+17%)
Analyst growth 8.1%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$42.63
(+6%)
Market implied 8.1%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$26.83
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 9:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
William Bobbora
BUY
1200 shares
2026-02-24
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