TCBX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBX - Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock
$38.78
-0.21 (-0.54%)
▼
5d:
-3.24%
30d:
+2.62%
90d:
+4.64%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCBX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCBX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.32
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBX is currently trading at $38.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.62 to $39.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $37.20, while resistance sits at $40.59.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.75 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $37.20, while resistance sits at $40.59.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.75 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.62 -
$39.54
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($42.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.62 -
$39.54
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.20
Resistance Level
$40.59
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.23
Wall Street Target
$42.75
(+10.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Profit Margin
32.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.70
(0%)
2-Year Target
$38.63
(0%)
3-Year Target
$38.55
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$38.86
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.2%)
$112.87
(+191%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$47.81
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 7.2%)
$40.64
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89
Bull Case
$46.34
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.1%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$42.13
(+9%)
Market implied 8.1%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$26.51
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.2 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$39.09
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 8:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
William Bobbora
BUY
1200 shares
2026-02-24
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