TCBX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCBX - Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock
$45.49
0.20 (0.44%)
▲
5d:
-1.39%
30d:
+7.31%
90d:
+19.96%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TCBX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TCBX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.31
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCBX is currently trading at $45.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.54 to $45.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (9.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TCBX scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCBX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TCBX scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$41.54 -
$45.43
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (21/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.54 -
$45.43
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.76
Resistance Level
$46.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.68
Wall Street Target
$45.50
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.3%
Profit Margin
32.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 9.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.45
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$49.49
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$51.61
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$45.43
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.8%)
$107.25
(+136%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 7.8%)
$57.06
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 7.8%)
$48.50
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.06
Bull Case
$52.27
(+15%)
Analyst growth 4.9%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$47.52
(+5%)
Market implied 4.9%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$30.80
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 6:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCBX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
William Bobbora
BUY
1200 shares
2026-02-24
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