TFPM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFPM - Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
$28.77
-0.87 (-2.94%)
▼
5d:
-0.9%
30d:
-4.67%
90d:
-9.84%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TFPM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.4% annual earnings decline despite 147% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TFPM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.4% annual earnings decline despite 147% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.79
Based on 2.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFPM is currently trading at $28.77, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.70 to $29.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.9) compared to its historical average (24.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 147.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.21, while resistance sits at $29.79.
Market Sentiment: TFPM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+35.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.21, while resistance sits at $29.79.
Market Sentiment: TFPM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+35.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$27.70 -
$29.81
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.6% below Wall St target ($39.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.70 -
$29.81
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.21
Resistance Level
$29.79
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.92
Wall Street Target
$39.00
(+35.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
78.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
147.2%
Profit Margin
68.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.9 vs 24.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.50
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$26.29
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$25.14
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→24)
$28.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 1.5%)
$30.06
(+5%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 1.5%)
$29.78
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 1.5%)
$25.32
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 19.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.51
Bull Case
$29.69
(+3%)
Analyst growth -8.9%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$26.99
(-6%)
Market implied -8.9%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case
$20.16
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.9 to 24.0
Stabilization Target:
$33.00
(+14.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 6:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFPM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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