TFPM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFPM - Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
$27.72
-0.38 (-1.35%)
▼
5d:
-7.85%
30d:
+3.24%
90d:
-22.2%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TFPM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TFPM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.16
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFPM is currently trading at $27.72, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.44 to $30.92. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.0) compared to its historical average (24.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 147.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TFPM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.50 (+44.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TFPM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $40.50 (+44.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$28.44 -
$30.92
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.1% below Wall St target ($40.50)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.44 -
$30.92
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.34
Resistance Level
$31.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.04
Wall Street Target
$40.50
(+44.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
78.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
147.2%
Profit Margin
68.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 24.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.88
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$23.84
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$21.95
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→24)
$28.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.5%)
$36.74
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 4.5%)
$32.11
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 4.5%)
$27.29
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 18.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.55
Bull Case
$29.86
(+6%)
Analyst growth -4.8%, PE expands to 20.2
Base Case
$27.15
(-3%)
Market implied -4.8%, PE stable at 18.4
Bear Case
$19.39
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.0 to 24.3
Stabilization Target:
$35.87
(+27.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFPM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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