TFPM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFPM - Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
$33.79
0.50 (1.50%)
▲
5d:
+7.37%
30d:
+17.65%
90d:
+5.96%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFPM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFPM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.44
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFPM is currently trading at $33.79, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.18 to $32.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.9) is in line with its historical norms (23.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 172.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFPM scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.25 (+16.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TFPM scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.25 (+16.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$28.18 -
$32.08
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
21.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.3% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($39.25)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.18 -
$32.08
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.68
Resistance Level
$34.29
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.88
Wall Street Target
$39.25
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
172.2%
Profit Margin
84.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.9 vs 23.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.88
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$31.99
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$31.13
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→24)
$33.85
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 10.8%)
$45.96
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.8%)
$42.15
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.8%)
$35.83
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.03
Bull Case
$27.85
(-18%)
Analyst growth -23.9%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$25.32
(-25%)
Market implied -23.9%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$22.64
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.9 to 23.8
Stabilization Target:
$36.75
(+8.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 8:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:01 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFPM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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