Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFPM - Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
$30.44
-0.37 (-1.20%)
▼
5d:
-4.99%
30d:
-6.77%
90d:
-3.33%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFPM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFPM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.09
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.97
7.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFPM is currently trading at $30.44, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.79 to $34.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.0) compared to its historical average (23.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 172.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TFPM scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.50 (+29.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TFPM scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.50 (+29.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$31.79 -
$34.45
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.8% below Wall St target ($39.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.79 -
$34.45
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.36
Resistance Level
$34.05
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.03
Wall Street Target
$39.50
(+29.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
172.2%
Profit Margin
84.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.0 vs 23.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.89
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$27.41
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$26.02
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→24)
$30.52
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 12.6%)
$44.22
(+45%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.0, Growth: 12.6%)
$43.43
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: 12.6%)
$36.91
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.00
Bull Case
$25.75
(-15%)
Analyst growth -24.0%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$23.41
(-23%)
Market implied -24.0%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$20.95
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.0 to 23.5
Stabilization Target:
$35.71
(+17.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFPM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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