Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFPM - Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
$33.78
0.82 (2.49%)
â˛
5d:
-2.23%
30d:
+4.74%
90d:
+20.64%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TFPM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TFPM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.25
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFPM is currently trading at $33.78, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.36 to $34.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.8) is in line with its historical norms (23.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 172.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $32.33, while resistance sits at $35.34.
Market Sentiment: TFPM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.25 (+16.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $32.33, while resistance sits at $35.34.
Market Sentiment: TFPM scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.25 (+16.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$31.36 -
$34.45
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
40.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($39.25)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.36 -
$34.45
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.33
Resistance Level
$35.34
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.83
Wall Street Target
$39.25
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
172.2%
Profit Margin
84.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.8 vs 23.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.90
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$32.05
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$31.21
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22â24)
$33.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.9%)
$46.06
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.9%)
$42.57
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.9%)
$36.18
(+7%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.00
Bull Case
$28.06
(-17%)
Analyst growth -22.6%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$25.51
(-25%)
Market implied -22.6%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$22.41
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.8 to 23.6
Stabilization Target:
$36.53
(+8.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 11:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFPM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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