TFPM
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
Mineral Royalty Traders
Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$32.15
-0.82 (-2.49%)
▼
5d:
+13.81%
30d:
+3.28%
90d:
-0.31%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
LOW Confidence (29%)
Quality Score
56/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$29.15 – $31.35
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
22.8x
FAIR
vs 23.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$39.50
+22.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$27.59 / $33.21
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: TFPM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.30
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFPM is currently trading at $32.15, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.15 to $31.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.8) is in line with its historical norms (23.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.59, while resistance sits at $33.21.
Market Sentiment: TFPM scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.50 (+22.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.59, while resistance sits at $33.21.
Market Sentiment: TFPM scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.50 (+22.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$29.15 -
$31.35
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$29.15 -
$31.35
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$27.59
Resistance Level
$33.21
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.9% below Wall St target ($39.50)
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.83
Wall Street Target
$39.50
(+22.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Profit Margin
82.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.8 vs 23.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.02
(0%)
2-Year Target
$31.89
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$31.77
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→23)
$32.14
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.8, Growth: 6.8%)
$39.16
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.8%)
$34.06
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 6.8%)
$28.95
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.01
Bull Case
$25.41
(-21%)
Analyst growth -29.9%, PE expands to 18.0
Base Case
$23.10
(-28%)
Market implied -29.9%, PE stable at 16.4
Bear Case
$22.42
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.8 to 23.1
Stabilization Target:
$32.53
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TFPM)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 7, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Elliott Investment Management, a prominent investment firm, announced an amendment and restatement of margin loan agreements secured by shares of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Bearish sentiment on StockTwits suggests this news is seen as a payday lender event.
Key Retail Themes:
Elliott Investment Management's involvement
Margin loan agreement amendment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 5:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFPM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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