TFPM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFPM - Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
$29.86
-0.19 (-0.63%)
▼
5d:
+2.4%
30d:
-5.86%
90d:
-2.26%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TFPM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TFPM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.38
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFPM is currently trading at $29.86, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.86 to $31.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.2) compared to its historical average (24.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 147.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.34, while resistance sits at $31.90.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.25 (+38.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.34, while resistance sits at $31.90.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.25 (+38.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$28.86 -
$31.62
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.1% below Wall St target ($41.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.86 -
$31.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.34
Resistance Level
$31.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.20
Wall Street Target
$41.25
(+38.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
78.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
147.2%
Profit Margin
68.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 24.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.89
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$26.05
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$24.33
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→25)
$29.87
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.8%)
$35.99
(+21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 3.8%)
$33.39
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 3.8%)
$28.38
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 19.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.51
Bull Case
$32.35
(+8%)
Analyst growth -2.1%, PE expands to 21.9
Base Case
$29.41
(-2%)
Market implied -2.1%, PE stable at 19.9
Bear Case
$20.43
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.2 to 24.8
Stabilization Target:
$36.65
(+22.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFPM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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