TMDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMDX - TransMedics Group, Inc. Common Stock
$73.83
-1.68 (-2.22%)
▼
5d:
-2.19%
30d:
+7.23%
90d:
-34.13%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TMDX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TMDX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 13.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$160.51
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$99.66
25.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMDX is currently trading at $73.83, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.57 to $73.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.4) compared to its historical average (34.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $70.65, while resistance sits at $80.72.
Market Sentiment: TMDX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.33 (+58.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMDX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $70.65, while resistance sits at $80.72.
Market Sentiment: TMDX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.33 (+58.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$65.57 -
$73.67
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.9% below Wall St target ($117.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$65.57 -
$73.67
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.65
Resistance Level
$80.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.39
Wall Street Target
$117.33
(+58.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-71.5%
Profit Margin
27.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 34.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.45
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$59.80
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$53.82
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→34)
$82.44
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 61.1%)
$249.18
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 61.1%)
$242.35
(+228%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 61.1%)
$205.99
(+179%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 17.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.37
Bull Case
$62.66
(-15%)
Analyst growth -24.6%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$56.97
(-23%)
Market implied -24.6%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$51.35
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.4 to 34.3
Stabilization Target:
$113.08
(+53.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+53.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 1:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Weill
SELL
3571 shares
2026-03-04
Gerardo Hernandez
SELL
7236 shares
2026-03-04
Stephanie Lovell
SELL
1193 shares
2026-03-04
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