TME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TME - Tencent Music Entertainment Group American Depositary Shares, each representing two Class A Ordinary Shares
$9.45
-0.03 (-0.32%)
▼
5d:
+6.66%
30d:
+9.12%
90d:
+3.05%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TME shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TME shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.34
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.14
6.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TME is currently trading at $9.45, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.42 to $9.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.3) compared to its historical average (1.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TME is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.64, while resistance sits at $9.94.
Market Sentiment: TME has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.45 (+63.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TME is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.64, while resistance sits at $9.94.
Market Sentiment: TME has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.45 (+63.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$8.42 -
$9.24
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 63.4% below Wall St target ($15.45)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.42 -
$9.24
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.65
Resistance Level
$9.94
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.32
Wall Street Target
$15.45
(+63.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.8%
Profit Margin
26.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.3 vs 1.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.87
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$8.33
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$7.82
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$9.50
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.7%)
$201.74
(+2035%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.3, Growth: 10.7%)
$12.82
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.1, Growth: 10.7%)
$10.90
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.82
Bull Case
$20.86
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$18.96
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$6.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.3 to 1.6
Stabilization Target:
$11.47
(+21.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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