TME Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TME - Tencent Music Entertainment Group American Depositary Shares, each representing two Class A Ordinary Shares
$8.84
0.18 (2.08%)
â˛
5d:
-7.24%
30d:
-4.33%
90d:
+2.79%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TME is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -8.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TME is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -8.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.48
Based on 11.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.09
26.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TME is currently trading at $8.84, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.72 to $9.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.2) compared to its historical average (1.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TME is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.21, while resistance sits at $9.93.
Market Sentiment: TME scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.98 (+73.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TME is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.21, while resistance sits at $9.93.
Market Sentiment: TME scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.98 (+73.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$8.72 -
$9.49
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 73.0% below Wall St target ($14.98)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.72 -
$9.49
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.21
Resistance Level
$9.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.21
Wall Street Target
$14.98
(+73.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Profit Margin
26.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.2 vs 1.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.92
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$7.25
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$6.63
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1â2)
$8.78
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 18.6%)
$242.15
(+2696%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.2, Growth: 18.6%)
$14.46
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.0, Growth: 18.6%)
$12.30
(+42%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.82
Bull Case
$18.61
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$16.92
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.3
Bear Case
$5.75
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.2 to 1.6
Stabilization Target:
$11.47
(+32.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 16, 2026 1:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TME showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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