VRTX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
$468.42
1.63 (0.35%)
▲
5d:
+3.99%
30d:
+8.05%
90d:
+3.81%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VRTX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VRTX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$675.51
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$419.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRTX is currently trading at $468.42, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $432.86 to $451.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.7) is in line with its historical norms (21.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $470.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VRTX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $548.69 (+17.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $470.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VRTX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $548.69 (+17.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$432.86 -
$451.85
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($548.69)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$432.86 -
$451.85
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$433.80
Resistance Level
$470.82
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.74
Wall Street Target
$548.69
(+17.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
61.4%
Profit Margin
35.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 21.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$469.59
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$472.41
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$475.24
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$467.81
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.1%)
$659.59
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.7, Growth: 12.1%)
$658.38
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 12.1%)
$559.62
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.85
Bull Case
$633.05
(+36%)
Analyst growth 27.4%, PE expands to 29.5
Base Case
$575.50
(+23%)
Market implied 27.4%, PE stable at 26.8
Bear Case
$307.11
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joy Liu
SELL
978 shares
2026-04-01
Carmen Bozic
SELL
2329 shares
2026-03-13
Amit Sachdev
SELL
1846 shares
2026-02-25
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