ZGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZGN - Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.
$13.02
-0.14 (-1.06%)
▼
5d:
-4.41%
30d:
-12.62%
90d:
+13.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ZGN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ZGN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.53
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.85
17.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZGN is currently trading at $13.02, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.18 to $14.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.4) is in line with its historical norms (24.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZGN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ZGN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZGN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ZGN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$13.18 -
$14.63
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ZGN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.68)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.18 -
$14.63
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.70
Resistance Level
$15.44
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.43
Wall Street Target
$13.68
(+5.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.4 vs 24.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.99
(0%)
2-Year Target
$12.97
(0%)
3-Year Target
$12.94
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→25)
$13.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.4, Growth: 28.9%)
$27.87
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 28.9%)
$24.84
(+91%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 28.9%)
$21.12
(+62%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.43
Bull Case
$17.94
(+38%)
Analyst growth 23.9%, PE expands to 33.7
Base Case
$16.31
(+25%)
Market implied 23.9%, PE stable at 30.6
Bear Case
$8.95
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.4 to 24.6
Stabilization Target:
$13.11
(+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 10:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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