Ermenegildo Zegna (ZGN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZGN - Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.
$13.48
-0.37 (-2.67%)
▼
5d:
+4.42%
30d:
+8.1%
90d:
-9.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ZGN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ZGN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.78
14.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZGN is currently trading at $13.48, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.14 to $13.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.3) is in line with its historical norms (24.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZGN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.49, while resistance sits at $13.90.
Market Sentiment: ZGN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZGN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.49, while resistance sits at $13.90.
Market Sentiment: ZGN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.14 -
$13.06
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ZGN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.1% growth with 6.4% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.14 -
$13.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.49
Resistance Level
$13.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.31
Wall Street Target
$14.62
(+8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.2%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
25.3 vs 24.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.63
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$13.78
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$13.93
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.49
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.3, Growth: 35.0%)
$33.14
(+146%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 35.0%)
$26.01
(+93%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 35.0%)
$22.11
(+64%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.35
Bull Case
$23.19
(+72%)
Analyst growth 52.2%, PE expands to 43.5
Base Case
$21.08
(+56%)
Market implied 52.2%, PE stable at 39.6
Bear Case
$9.42
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 9:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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