ZGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZGN - Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.
$13.86
-0.04 (-0.29%)
▼
5d:
+3.66%
30d:
-3.21%
90d:
+4.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ZGN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ZGN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.84
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.67
16.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZGN is currently trading at $13.86, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.61 to $14.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 24.8) is in line with its historical norms (24.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZGN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.00, while resistance sits at $14.55.
Market Sentiment: ZGN scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZGN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.00, while resistance sits at $14.55.
Market Sentiment: ZGN scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$13.61 -
$14.89
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.06)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.61 -
$14.89
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.00
Resistance Level
$14.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.84
Wall Street Target
$15.06
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
24.8 vs 24.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.87
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$13.89
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$13.90
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.82
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.8, Growth: 30.7%)
$30.97
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 30.7%)
$25.00
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: 30.7%)
$21.25
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.44
Bull Case
$19.39
(+40%)
Analyst growth 26.8%, PE expands to 34.8
Base Case
$17.63
(+27%)
Market implied 26.8%, PE stable at 31.6
Bear Case
$9.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 6:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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