ABR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABR - Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
$5.03
0.04 (0.90%)
▲
5d:
-5.9%
30d:
-9.62%
90d:
-33.0%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ABR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ABR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.03
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.23
19.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABR is currently trading at $5.03, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.08 to $5.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.62 (+33.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.62 (+33.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.08 -
$5.43
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.0% below Wall St target ($6.62)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.9% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.08 -
$5.43
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.95
Resistance Level
$5.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.22
Wall Street Target
$6.63
(+33.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.0%
Profit Margin
22.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.94
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$4.89
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$4.85
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$5.01
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 119.6%)
$44.55
(+795%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 119.6%)
$16.81
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 119.6%)
$14.29
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.40
Bull Case
$8.78
(+76%)
Analyst growth 51.5%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$7.98
(+60%)
Market implied 51.5%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$3.58
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$5.15
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 07, 2026 2:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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