ABR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABR - Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
$4.91
-0.14 (-2.77%)
▼
5d:
-1.41%
30d:
-5.58%
90d:
-34.53%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.91
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.16
20.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABR is currently trading at $4.91, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.01 to $5.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.62 (+34.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.62 (+34.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.01 -
$5.34
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.9% below Wall St target ($6.62)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.01 -
$5.34
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.86
Resistance Level
$5.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.10
Wall Street Target
$6.63
(+34.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.0%
Profit Margin
22.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.84
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$4.77
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$4.71
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$4.88
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 119.6%)
$44.55
(+807%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 119.6%)
$16.57
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 119.6%)
$14.09
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.40
Bull Case
$8.27
(+64%)
Analyst growth 51.5%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$7.51
(+49%)
Market implied 51.5%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$3.37
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$5.09
(+3.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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