ABR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABR - Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
$5.09
-0.17 (-3.23%)
âŧ
5d:
-4.86%
30d:
-1.17%
90d:
-12.84%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When ABR Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ABR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ABR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.84
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.49
7.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABR is currently trading at $5.09, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.96 to $5.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.5) compared to its historical average (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.88 (+15.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.88 (+15.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.96 -
$5.22
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($5.88)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.0% growth with -24.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.96 -
$5.22
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.97
Resistance Level
$5.48
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.53
Wall Street Target
$5.88
(+15.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-24.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.0%
Profit Margin
11.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.0% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.29
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$5.51
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$5.73
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$5.11
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 96.0%)
$36.46
(+616%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 96.0%)
$17.18
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 96.0%)
$14.60
(+187%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 11.74 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.43
Bull Case
$6.15
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$5.09
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$3.89
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 16, 2026 1:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:36 AM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ABR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated REIT - Mortgage Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Mortgage by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$13 | 36 SELL |
|
NLY
Annaly Capital ManagemenâĻ |
BUY
14 analysts |
$24 | 55 HOLD |
|
TRTX
TPG RE Finance Trust Inc |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$10 | 73 BUY |
|
EFC
Ellington Financial Inc. |
STRONG BUY
8 analysts |
$15 | 55 HOLD |
|
MITT
AG Mortgage Investment TâĻ |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$9 | 60 HOLD |
