Rithm Capital (RITM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RITM - Rithm Capital Corp.
$8.71
-0.04 (-0.46%)
▼
5d:
-4.6%
30d:
-13.07%
90d:
-5.63%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RITM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RITM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.82
Based on 3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RITM is currently trading at $8.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.18 to $10.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.7) compared to its historical average (4.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RITM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RITM scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.15 (+51.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RITM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RITM scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.15 (+51.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.18 -
$10.06
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (22/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.0% below Wall St target ($13.15)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.18 -
$10.06
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.60
Resistance Level
$9.71
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.70
Wall Street Target
$13.15
(+51.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-93.2%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.7 vs 4.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.27
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$7.84
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$7.44
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$8.65
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 2.3%)
$51.40
(+490%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.7, Growth: 2.3%)
$9.32
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.1, Growth: 2.3%)
$7.93
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$19.65
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$17.86
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$6.07
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.7 to 4.3
Stabilization Target:
$10.12
(+16.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 5:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is RITM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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