RITM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RITM - Rithm Capital Corp.
$9.88
0.01 (0.10%)
▲
5d:
+8.33%
30d:
+5.56%
90d:
+1.02%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RITM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RITM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.46
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RITM is currently trading at $9.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.05 to $9.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.2) is in line with its historical norms (4.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RITM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RITM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.20 (+33.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RITM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: RITM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.20 (+33.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.05 -
$9.57
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.6% below Wall St target ($13.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.05 -
$9.57
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.96
Resistance Level
$10.08
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.19
Wall Street Target
$13.20
(+33.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-93.2%
Profit Margin
11.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.2 vs 4.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.74
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$9.61
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$9.47
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$9.94
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 3.5%)
$54.09
(+448%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.2, Growth: 3.5%)
$10.94
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.6, Growth: 3.5%)
$9.30
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$21.71
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.0
Base Case
$19.74
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$6.71
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.2 to 4.4
Stabilization Target:
$10.37
(+4.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RITM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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