RITM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RITM - Rithm Capital Corp.
$10.19
0.03 (0.30%)
â˛
5d:
-1.64%
30d:
+13.47%
90d:
+10.04%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RITM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RITM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.13
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RITM is currently trading at $10.19, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.31 to $10.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.3) is in line with its historical norms (4.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RITM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RITM scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.20 (+29.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RITM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RITM scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.20 (+29.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$9.31 -
$10.27
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.5% below Wall St target ($13.20)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.31 -
$10.27
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.98
Resistance Level
$10.47
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.34
Wall Street Target
$13.20
(+29.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-93.2%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.3 vs 4.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.17
(0%)
2-Year Target
$10.15
(0%)
3-Year Target
$10.13
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4â4)
$10.28
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 2.5%)
$50.79
(+398%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.3, Growth: 2.5%)
$10.97
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.7, Growth: 2.5%)
$9.32
(-9%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$22.35
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case
$20.32
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.9
Bear Case
$6.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.3 to 4.4
Stabilization Target:
$10.34
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RITM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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