Rithm Capital (RITM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RITM - Rithm Capital Corp.
$9.74
0.08 (0.83%)
▲
5d:
-3.08%
30d:
-4.79%
90d:
+5.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RITM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RITM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.09
Based on 3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RITM is currently trading at $9.74, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.93 to $10.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.1) is in line with its historical norms (4.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RITM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.15 (+35.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RITM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.15 (+35.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.93 -
$10.27
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.0% below Wall St target ($13.15)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.93 -
$10.27
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.62
Resistance Level
$10.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.14
Wall Street Target
$13.15
(+35.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-93.2%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.1 vs 4.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.57
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$9.41
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$9.25
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$9.84
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 2.3%)
$50.82
(+422%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.1, Growth: 2.3%)
$10.43
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.5, Growth: 2.3%)
$8.86
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$21.25
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$19.32
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$6.57
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.1 to 4.4
Stabilization Target:
$10.36
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RITM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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