AGNC Investment (AGNC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$8.20
-0.28 (-3.30%)
▼
5d:
-7.03%
30d:
-4.76%
90d:
-25.18%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 19, 2026
0d
Protect AGNC Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (50%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$8.54 – $8.87
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
5.7x
CHEAP
vs 6.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$9.47
+15.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$8.19 / $9.05
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AGNC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 2, 2026 at $8.68 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.20
Based on -1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGNC is currently trading at $8.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.54 to $8.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 772.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGNC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AGNC scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.47 (+15.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGNC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AGNC scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.47 (+15.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.54 -
$8.87
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$8.54 -
$8.87
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$8.19
Resistance Level
$9.05
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding AGNC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (21/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($9.47)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.66
Wall Street Target
$9.47
(+15.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
546.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
772.4%
Profit Margin
43.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 6.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.68
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$7.18
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$6.72
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$8.19
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -7.1%)
$23.08
(+182%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: -7.1%)
$6.58
(-20%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: -7.1%)
$5.60
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 5.91 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.39
Bull Case
$9.90
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 6.2
Base Case
$8.20
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 5.9
Bear Case
$6.27
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 5.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$9.99
(+21.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AGNC)
Bullish
5 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
4 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 13, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
AGNC Investment Corp. announced a monthly common stock dividend of $0.12 per share for November 2026, with bullish sentiment on StockTwits regarding the dividend and long-term potential of the stock.
Key Retail Themes:
Dividend
Long-term potential
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 4:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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