NLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NLY - Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
$23.33
-0.06 (-0.26%)
▼
5d:
+1.26%
30d:
-0.38%
90d:
+6.09%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NLY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NLY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.20
17.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NLY is currently trading at $23.33, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.57 to $23.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3426.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.57 -
$23.15
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.23)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.57 -
$23.15
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.45
Resistance Level
$23.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.50
Wall Street Target
$24.23
(+3.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
479.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3426.0%
Profit Margin
90.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.28
(0%)
2-Year Target
$23.24
(0%)
3-Year Target
$23.19
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.18
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 86.6%)
$64.56
(+177%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 86.6%)
$23.94
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 86.6%)
$20.35
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.14
Bull Case
$19.33
(-17%)
Analyst growth -24.9%, PE expands to 6.2
Base Case
$17.57
(-25%)
Market implied -24.9%, PE stable at 5.7
Bear Case
$15.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 16, 2026 2:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven Francis Campbell
SELL
26491 shares
2026-02-25
Serena Wolfe
SELL
16536 shares
2026-02-18
Steven Francis Campbell
SELL
28225 shares
2026-02-18
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