Annaly Capital Management. (NLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NLY - Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
$18.70
-0.19 (-1.01%)
▼
5d:
-9.22%
30d:
-17.33%
90d:
-17.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.20
33.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NLY is currently trading at $18.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.51 to $22.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.0) compared to its historical average (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3426.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NLY scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.23 (+29.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NLY scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.23 (+29.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$20.51 -
$22.95
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.6% below Wall St target ($24.23)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.51 -
$22.95
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.37
Resistance Level
$21.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.01
Wall Street Target
$24.23
(+29.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
479.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3426.0%
Profit Margin
90.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 7.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.39
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$16.17
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$15.04
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$18.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 86.6%)
$65.10
(+248%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: 86.6%)
$19.19
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: 86.6%)
$16.31
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.85
Bull Case
$16.78
(-10%)
Analyst growth -19.2%, PE expands to 5.4
Base Case
$15.26
(-18%)
Market implied -19.2%, PE stable at 4.9
Bear Case
$12.85
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$23.32
(+24.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 8:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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