NLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NLY - Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
$22.72
-0.36 (-1.56%)
▼
5d:
+1.2%
30d:
+2.34%
90d:
-0.79%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.20
19.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NLY is currently trading at $22.72, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.38 to $23.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3426.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$22.38 -
$23.04
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.23)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.38 -
$23.04
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.03
Resistance Level
$23.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.31
Wall Street Target
$24.23
(+6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
479.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3426.0%
Profit Margin
88.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.47
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$22.22
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$21.98
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$22.56
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 86.6%)
$66.16
(+191%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 86.6%)
$23.32
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 86.6%)
$19.82
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.14
Bull Case
$19.07
(-16%)
Analyst growth -24.9%, PE expands to 6.1
Base Case
$17.34
(-24%)
Market implied -24.9%, PE stable at 5.6
Bear Case
$15.69
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$23.32
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 12:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven Francis Campbell
SELL
26491 shares
2026-02-25
Serena Wolfe
SELL
16536 shares
2026-02-18
Steven Francis Campbell
SELL
28225 shares
2026-02-18
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