Annaly Capital Management. (NLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NLY - Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
$18.01
-0.28 (-1.53%)
▼
5d:
-0.83%
30d:
-16.0%
90d:
-19.27%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NLY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.7% annual earnings decline despite 3426% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NLY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.7% annual earnings decline despite 3426% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.85
35.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NLY is currently trading at $18.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.06 to $20.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.8) compared to its historical average (7.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3426.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NLY scores 87/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.64 (+25.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NLY scores 87/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.64 (+25.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.06 -
$20.88
Company Quality Score
78/100
(STRONG BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (87/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.7% below Wall St target ($22.64)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 87/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.06 -
$20.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.70
Resistance Level
$18.71
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.79
Wall Street Target
$22.64
(+25.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
479.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3426.0%
Profit Margin
90.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 7.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.62
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$15.34
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$14.16
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$18.11
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 91.4%)
$63.53
(+253%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 91.4%)
$18.51
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 91.4%)
$15.73
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.21
Bull Case
$14.88
(-17%)
Analyst growth -26.1%, PE expands to 4.8
Base Case
$13.52
(-25%)
Market implied -26.1%, PE stable at 4.3
Bear Case
$12.44
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 7.4
Stabilization Target:
$23.03
(+27.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 21, 2026 10:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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