NLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NLY - Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
$22.86
0.13 (0.57%)
▲
5d:
+1.33%
30d:
+5.3%
90d:
+3.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NLY is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NLY is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.62
Based on -27.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NLY is currently trading at $22.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.54 to $22.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NLY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NLY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.54 -
$22.75
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.27)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.54 -
$22.75
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.88
Resistance Level
$21.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.64
Wall Street Target
$24.27
(+6.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
48.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
122.5%
Profit Margin
87.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.95
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$23.04
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$23.14
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.71
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -58.1%)
$64.04
(+180%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: -58.1%)
$22.46
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: -58.1%)
$19.09
(-17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$24.13
(+6%)
Analyst growth -3.5%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$21.94
(-4%)
Market implied -3.5%, PE stable at 7.3
Bear Case
$15.46
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 9:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven Francis Campbell
SELL
26491 shares
2026-02-25
Serena Wolfe
SELL
16536 shares
2026-02-18
Steven Francis Campbell
SELL
28225 shares
2026-02-18
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