Annaly Capital Management. (NLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$18.72
-0.23 (-1.21%)
▼
5d:
+2.69%
30d:
+2.35%
90d:
-19.0%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (49%)
Quality Score
55/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$18.09 – $18.64
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.0x
CHEAP
vs 7.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$21.14
+12.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$18.10 / $19.32
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: NLY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.34
Based on -22.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NLY is currently trading at $18.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.09 to $18.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.0) compared to its historical average (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3426.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.10, while resistance sits at $19.32.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.14 (+12.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.10, while resistance sits at $19.32.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.14 (+12.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.09 -
$18.64
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$18.09 -
$18.64
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$18.10
Resistance Level
$19.32
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($21.14)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.01
Wall Street Target
$21.14
(+12.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
479.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3426.0%
Profit Margin
80.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.0 vs 7.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.56
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$16.47
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$15.45
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$18.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -49.5%)
$60.92
(+225%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: -49.5%)
$18.44
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.1, Growth: -49.5%)
$15.68
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.46
Bull Case
$41.69
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$37.90
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$12.89
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$22.73
(+21.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.4%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NLY)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 11, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Annaly Capital Management declared cash dividends for its Series F, Series G, and Series J Preferred Stocks for the fourth quarter of 2026.
Key Retail Themes:
Annaly Capital Management declares preferred dividends
Dividend rates for Series F, G, and J Preferred Stocks
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 12:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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