Annaly Capital Management. (NLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NLY - Annaly Capital Management. Inc.
$21.90
-0.10 (-0.45%)
▼
5d:
-4.07%
30d:
-5.24%
90d:
-0.5%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.20
22.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NLY is currently trading at $21.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.55 to $23.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.1) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3426.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NLY scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.23 (+10.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NLY scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.23 (+10.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$22.55 -
$23.32
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($24.23)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.55 -
$23.32
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.86
Resistance Level
$23.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.07
Wall Street Target
$24.23
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
479.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3426.0%
Profit Margin
90.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.54
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$21.09
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$20.64
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$21.88
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 86.6%)
$64.37
(+193%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 86.6%)
$22.58
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 86.6%)
$19.19
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.14
Bull Case
$18.68
(-15%)
Analyst growth -24.9%, PE expands to 6.0
Base Case
$16.98
(-23%)
Market implied -24.9%, PE stable at 5.5
Bear Case
$15.37
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$23.32
(+6.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 11, 2026 4:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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