ACHC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ACHC - Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.

SERVICES-SPECIALTY OUTPATIENT FACILITIES, NEC
$29.62
1.48 (5.26%) ▲
5d: -14.17%
30d: -5.22%
90d: +14.39%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026 0d
Smart Money Accumulation

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Strength: 4.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ACHC is down 14.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.72
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.18
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ACHC is currently trading at $29.62, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.64 to $33.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.9) compared to its historical average (12.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.8% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ACHC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $26.62, while resistance sits at $35.83. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.3% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $27.64 - $33.84
Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 75.7%

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All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.3%)
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($32.21)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 9.8% growth with -0.4% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $27.64 - $33.84
Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $26.62
Resistance Level $35.83
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Jul 31, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.86
Wall Street Target $32.21 (+8.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -63.6%
Profit Margin -33.4%
Valuation Premium vs History +9.8% premium
PE vs Historical 16.9 vs 12.7 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +9.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $32.52 (+10%)
2-Year Target $35.71 (+21%)
3-Year Target $39.21 (+32%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→13) PE COMPRESSION $29.53 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.7, Growth: 15.9%) $56.65 (+91%)
Base: (SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 15.9%) $46.08 (+56%)
Bear: (PE: 12.7, Growth: 15.9%) $34.71 (+17%)
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Last updated: August 02, 2026 9:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced ACHC Option Strategies

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