ACHC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACHC - Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.
$30.56
-0.72 (-2.30%)
▼
5d:
-1.7%
30d:
+27.81%
90d:
+17.81%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACHC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 12.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ACHC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 12.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.47
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACHC is currently trading at $30.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.28 to $30.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.5) compared to its historical average (12.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 12.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACHC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $26.41, while resistance sits at $32.82.
Market Sentiment: ACHC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACHC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $26.41, while resistance sits at $32.82.
Market Sentiment: ACHC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$24.28 -
$30.19
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($30.29)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 12.8% growth with 7.6% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.28 -
$30.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.41
Resistance Level
$32.82
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.47
Wall Street Target
$30.29
(-0.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.6%
Profit Margin
-32.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+12.8% premium
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 12.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+12.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.47
(+13%)
2-Year Target
$38.88
(+27%)
3-Year Target
$43.86
(+44%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$30.63
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.3%)
$59.99
(+96%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 16.3%)
$48.13
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 16.3%)
$33.60
(+10%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ACHC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ACHC price and gamma walls.
