ACHC
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.
SERVICES-SPECIALTY OUTPATIENT FACILITIES, NEC
Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$38.64
+0.03 (+0.08%)
▲
5d:
+30.45%
30d:
+28.46%
90d:
+21.89%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
0d
Protect ACHC Gains
Updated Nov 10, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (18%)
Quality Score
35/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$28.42 – $33.94
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
19.1x
STRETCHED
vs 13.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$38.79
+0.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$28.89 / $39.70
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ACHC is 13.8% above its trading range ($33.94). Market expects 11.6% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.12
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACHC is currently trading at $38.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.42 to $33.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.1) compared to its historical average (13.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACHC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACHC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACHC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACHC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$28.42 -
$33.94
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
17.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$28.42 -
$33.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$28.89
Resistance Level
$39.70
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
ACHC is technically overbought (RSI 79). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+13.8% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($38.79)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 11.6% growth with 5.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.13
Wall Street Target
$38.79
(+0.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.1%
Profit Margin
-33.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.6% premium
PE vs Historical
19.1 vs 13.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.12
(+12%)
2-Year Target
$48.12
(+25%)
3-Year Target
$53.71
(+39%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.73
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.3%)
$69.79
(+81%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.1, Growth: 20.3%)
$67.24
(+74%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 20.3%)
$48.49
(+26%)
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ACHC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 2, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits messages indicate a bullish sentiment towards $ACHC, with one user expressing regret for not buying earlier and comparing it to ENTA. No recent news articles were available.
Key Retail Themes:
Buy and Hold
Comparisons to other stocks
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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