Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACHC - Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.
$31.43
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-0.76%
30d:
+7.01%
90d:
-7.59%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACHC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ACHC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.95
Based on 11.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.67
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACHC is currently trading at $31.43, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.70 to $30.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.0) compared to its historical average (13.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACHC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACHC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACHC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $32.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACHC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$27.70 -
$30.09
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ACHC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.79)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.9% growth with -0.4% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.70 -
$30.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.31
Resistance Level
$32.09
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.02
Wall Street Target
$33.79
(+7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-63.6%
Profit Margin
-33.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.9% premium
PE vs Historical
17.0 vs 13.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.91
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$36.59
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$39.48
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.55
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 18.9%)
$61.70
(+96%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.0, Growth: 18.9%)
$52.88
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 18.9%)
$42.25
(+34%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ACHC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ACHC price and gamma walls.
