What is the fair value of ADP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ADP to be between $252.21 and $275.02. The current price is $280.81.

What is the analyst price target for ADP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ADP is $286.93. This implies a potential upside of 2.2% from current levels.

ADP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ADP - Automatic Data Processing

SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION

$280.81

1.60 (0.57%) ▲

5d: +2.88%

30d: +15.62%

90d: +27.6%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 29, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 11, 2026 at $272.33 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026

Strength: 5.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADP trades at premium valuation expecting 5.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$336.68

Based on 7.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$209.05

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ADP is currently trading at $280.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $252.21 to $275.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.0) compared to its historical average (19.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $282.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $252.21 - $275.02

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 45.2%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($286.93)
NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.4% growth which is achievable
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (42/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $252.21 - $275.02

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $265.82

Resistance Level $282.17

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 23.01

Wall Street Target $286.93 (+2.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 6.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 9.8%

Profit Margin 20.1%

Valuation Premium vs History +5.4% premium

PE vs Historical 23.0 vs 19.6 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +5.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $295.97 (+5%)

2-Year Target $311.96 (+11%)

3-Year Target $328.80 (+17%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 23→20) PE COMPRESSION $280.05 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 23.0, Growth: 10.2%) $375.44 (+34%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.2%) $327.44 (+17%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 10.2%) $278.32 (-1%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 25.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.95

Bull Case $342.27 (+22%)

Analyst growth 11.4%, PE expands to 28.1

Base Case $311.16 (+11%)

Market implied 11.4%, PE stable at 25.5

Bear Case $189.86 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 2:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:51 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-23

Richard McCormick BUY 2026-03-19

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