ADTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADTN - ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$7.77
-0.09 (-1.15%)
âŧ
5d:
-7.5%
30d:
-23.45%
90d:
-47.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 18, 2026 at $8.10 · last confirmed Aug 18, 2026
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADTN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -10.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADTN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -10.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.84
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.94
40.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADTN is currently trading at $7.77, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.65 to $10.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (18.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADTN scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.67 (+88.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADTN scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.67 (+88.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$7.65 -
$10.96
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 88.8% below Wall St target ($14.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.65 -
$10.96
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.61
Resistance Level
$8.73
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.14
Wall Street Target
$14.67
(+88.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
-2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 18.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.99
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$6.29
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$5.66
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â18)
$7.80
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 104.9%)
$40.05
(+416%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 104.9%)
$26.22
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 104.9%)
$22.29
(+187%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 18.1
Stabilization Target:
$10.70
(+37.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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