ADTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADTN - ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$12.43
-1.01 (-7.51%)
▼
5d:
-3.57%
30d:
-16.86%
90d:
-17.63%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
19d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.55
29.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADTN is currently trading at $12.43, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.14 to $15.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.4) compared to its historical average (19.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+56.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+56.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.14 -
$15.46
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 56.9% below Wall St target ($19.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.14 -
$15.46
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.30
Resistance Level
$14.18
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.36
Wall Street Target
$19.50
(+56.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
-3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 19.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.81
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$11.22
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$10.66
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→19)
$12.45
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 34.3%)
$40.14
(+223%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 34.3%)
$30.14
(+143%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 34.3%)
$25.62
(+106%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.4 to 19.1
Stabilization Target:
$14.52
(+16.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 2:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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