ADTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADTN - ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$8.86
0.35 (4.11%)
▲
5d:
-6.74%
30d:
-30.29%
90d:
-51.98%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADTN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADTN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.53
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.09
48.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADTN is currently trading at $8.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.76 to $13.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.2) compared to its historical average (18.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $8.19, while resistance sits at $12.18. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+117.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $8.19, while resistance sits at $12.18. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+117.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.76 -
$13.49
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 117.4% below Wall St target ($18.50)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.76 -
$13.49
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.19
Resistance Level
$12.18
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.20
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(+117.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
-3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.2 vs 18.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.66
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$6.89
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.20
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→19)
$10.31
(+21%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 76.7%)
$53.17
(+525%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 76.7%)
$28.72
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 76.7%)
$24.41
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.2 to 18.6
Stabilization Target:
$14.14
(+66.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+66.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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