ADTRAN (ADTN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADTN - ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$7.54
0.36 (5.01%)
â˛
5d:
+5.45%
30d:
-7.6%
90d:
-50.39%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 11, 2026 at $7.54 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026
Strength: 5.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADTN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -10.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADTN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -10.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.55
39.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADTN is currently trading at $7.54, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.37 to $8.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.9) compared to its historical average (17.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.02, while resistance sits at $7.84. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.67 (+94.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.02, while resistance sits at $7.84. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.67 (+94.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$7.37 -
$8.26
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 94.5% below Wall St target ($14.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.37 -
$8.26
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.02
Resistance Level
$7.84
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.94
Wall Street Target
$14.67
(+94.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
-2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 17.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.79
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$6.11
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$5.50
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â18)
$7.56
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 102.0%)
$39.68
(+426%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 102.0%)
$25.45
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 102.0%)
$21.63
(+187%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 17.8
Stabilization Target:
$10.38
(+37.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 10:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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