ADTRAN (ADTN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADTN - ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$6.43
-0.02 (-0.31%)
▼
5d:
+1.9%
30d:
-7.28%
90d:
-32.32%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADTN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADTN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.30
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.98
46.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADTN is currently trading at $6.43, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.70 to $7.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.0) compared to its historical average (17.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.67 (+128.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.67 (+128.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.70 -
$7.39
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 128.1% below Wall St target ($14.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.70 -
$7.39
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.29
Resistance Level
$7.41
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.03
Wall Street Target
$14.67
(+128.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
-2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 17.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.79
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.21
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.69
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→17)
$7.22
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 102.0%)
$39.07
(+508%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 102.0%)
$21.70
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 102.0%)
$18.45
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 17.0
Stabilization Target:
$9.91
(+54.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+54.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 11:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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