ADTRAN (ADTN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADTN - ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$7.04
-0.03 (-0.42%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.26%
30d:
-6.38%
90d:
-45.38%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADTN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -11.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADTN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -11.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.26
42.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADTN is currently trading at $7.04, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.96 to $7.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.1) compared to its historical average (17.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.73, while resistance sits at $7.34.
Market Sentiment: ADTN scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.67 (+108.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.73, while resistance sits at $7.34.
Market Sentiment: ADTN scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.67 (+108.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$6.96 -
$7.62
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 108.3% below Wall St target ($14.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.96 -
$7.62
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.73
Resistance Level
$7.34
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.08
Wall Street Target
$14.67
(+108.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
-2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 17.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.34
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.70
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$5.13
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â17)
$7.39
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 102.0%)
$40.13
(+470%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 102.0%)
$23.76
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 102.0%)
$20.20
(+187%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 17.4
Stabilization Target:
$10.14
(+44.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+44.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 10:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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