ADTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADTN - ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$12.14
0.54 (4.66%)
▲
5d:
-3.65%
30d:
-20.03%
90d:
-31.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
12d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.97
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.37
30.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADTN is currently trading at $12.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.27 to $14.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.0) compared to its historical average (18.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.24, while resistance sits at $13.66. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADTN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+60.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.24, while resistance sits at $13.66. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADTN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+60.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.27 -
$14.68
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 60.6% below Wall St target ($19.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.27 -
$14.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.24
Resistance Level
$13.66
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.97
Wall Street Target
$19.50
(+60.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
-3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 18.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.47
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$10.84
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$10.25
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→19)
$12.12
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 34.3%)
$38.61
(+218%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: 34.3%)
$29.44
(+143%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 34.3%)
$25.02
(+106%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.0 to 18.9
Stabilization Target:
$14.36
(+18.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 21, 2026 5:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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