ADTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADTN - ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$14.47
-1.11 (-7.12%)
▼
5d:
-4.36%
30d:
-2.43%
90d:
+19.88%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.64
18.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADTN is currently trading at $14.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.50 to $17.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.0) is in line with its historical norms (19.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.00, while resistance sits at $16.10. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+34.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.00, while resistance sits at $16.10. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.50 (+34.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.50 -
$17.12
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.8% below Wall St target ($19.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.50 -
$17.12
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.00
Resistance Level
$16.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.04
Wall Street Target
$19.50
(+34.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
-3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 19.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.43
(0%)
2-Year Target
$14.38
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$14.34
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$14.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 34.3%)
$40.14
(+177%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 34.3%)
$35.09
(+143%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 34.3%)
$29.82
(+106%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.0 to 19.2
Stabilization Target:
$14.59
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 2:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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