ADTN
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
TELEPHONE & TELEGRAPH APPARATUS
ADTRAN (ADTN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$4.86
+0.17 (+3.62%)
▲
5d:
+17.68%
30d:
-26.81%
90d:
-42.14%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (84%)
Quality Score
47/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$5.09 – $7.32
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.8x
CHEAP
vs 16.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$9.54
+96.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$3.92 / $6.82
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADTN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 11, 2026 at $4.66 · last confirmed Nov 12, 2026
Strength: 7.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.55
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.03
46.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADTN is currently trading at $4.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.09 to $7.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.92, while resistance sits at $6.82. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.54 (+96.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.92, while resistance sits at $6.82. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.54 (+96.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.09 -
$7.32
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$5.09 -
$7.32
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$3.92
Resistance Level
$6.82
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 96.2% below Wall St target ($9.54)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.80
Wall Street Target
$9.54
(+96.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
-2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 16.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.37
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.94
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.54
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→17)
$5.45
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 54.4%)
$30.16
(+521%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 54.4%)
$16.40
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 54.4%)
$13.94
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 16.6
Stabilization Target:
$7.47
(+53.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+53.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ADTN)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 10, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
CEO Stanton Thomas bought 150,000 shares of $ADTN at a price of $4.01, signaling bullish confidence in the company.
Key Retail Themes:
CEO confidence
Buyer sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 11:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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