What is the fair value of LITE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for LITE to be between $867.77 and $983.41. The current price is $1085.42.

What is the analyst price target for LITE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for LITE is $1159.40. This implies a potential upside of 6.8% from current levels.

Lumentum (LITE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

LITE - Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock

COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT, NEC

$1085.42

39.64 (3.79%) ▲

5d: +15.27%

30d: +24.68%

90d: +48.43%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026 30d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 1, 2026 at $1054.01 · last confirmed Oct 2, 2026

Strength: 8.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: LITE is 10.4% above its trading range ($983.41). Market expects -12.5% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$1621.23

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$1006.66

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: LITE is currently trading at $1085.42, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $867.77 to $983.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 32.6) compared to its historical average (48.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 71.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1091.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.

Market Sentiment: LITE scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $867.77 - $983.41

Company Quality Score 45/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 19.0%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.4% above its trading range)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1159.40)
WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $867.77 - $983.41

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $881.23

Resistance Level $1091.61

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 32.59

Wall Street Target $1159.40 (+6.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 109.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 71.1%

Profit Margin -230.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -12.5% cheaper

PE vs Historical 32.6 vs 48.7 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -12.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $976.88 (-10%)

2-Year Target $879.19 (-19%)

3-Year Target $791.27 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 33→49) $1182.27 (+9%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 32.6, Growth: 53.9%) $3663.29 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 53.9%) $2292.79 (+111%)

Bear: (PE: 17.3, Growth: 53.9%) $1948.87 (+80%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.6 to 48.7

Stabilization Target: $1621.77 (+49.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +49.4%

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Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:40 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced LITE Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LITE price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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