LITE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LITE - Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$938.00
-91.15 (-8.86%)
▼
5d:
+3.96%
30d:
-3.91%
90d:
+37.78%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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4 traders called LITE this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LITE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LITE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$881.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$547.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LITE is currently trading at $938.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $866.30 to $991.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 51.8) is in line with its historical norms (55.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 71.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $806.62, while resistance sits at $1049.53. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1104.68 (+17.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $806.62, while resistance sits at $1049.53. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1104.68 (+17.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$866.30 -
$991.69
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1104.68)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$866.30 -
$991.69
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$806.62
Resistance Level
$1049.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
51.82
Wall Street Target
$1104.68
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
90.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.1%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
51.8 vs 55.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$915.49
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$893.52
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$872.07
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 52→56)
$937.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 51.8, Growth: 119.3%)
$3165.75
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 119.3%)
$1338.48
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 119.3%)
$1137.71
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (59x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (52x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 59.17 | Forward EPS (Implied): $14.54
Bull Case
$1039.20
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 62.1
Base Case
$860.62
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 59.2
Bear Case
$658.37
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 53.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 51.8 to 55.7
Stabilization Target:
$1008.21
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LITE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Wajid Ali
SELL
5302 shares
2026-02-27
Yuen Wupen
SELL
3157 shares
2026-02-17
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