LITE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LITE - Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$827.92
-66.01 (-7.38%)
▼
5d:
-13.51%
30d:
-14.16%
90d:
+13.58%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LITE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LITE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$882.71
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$548.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LITE is currently trading at $827.92, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $851.88 to $947.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 45.7) compared to its historical average (55.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 71.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $776.01, while resistance sits at $998.50. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: LITE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1111.29 (+34.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $776.01, while resistance sits at $998.50. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: LITE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1111.29 (+34.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$851.88 -
$947.41
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LITE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.2% below Wall St target ($1111.29)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-13.5%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$851.88 -
$947.41
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$776.01
Resistance Level
$998.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
45.66
Wall Street Target
$1111.29
(+34.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
90.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.1%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
45.7 vs 55.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$777.42
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$729.99
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$685.46
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 46→55)
$827.15
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 45.7, Growth: 120.4%)
$2794.23
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 120.4%)
$1332.80
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 120.4%)
$1132.88
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (52x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (46x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 52.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $15.81
Bull Case
$999.71
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 55.0
Base Case
$827.92
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 52.4
Bear Case
$633.36
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 47.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 45.7 to 55.1
Stabilization Target:
$999.05
(+20.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LITE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Wajid Ali
SELL
5302 shares
2026-02-27
Yuen Wupen
SELL
3157 shares
2026-02-17
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