What is the fair value of LITE stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for LITE to be between $833.47 and $938.38. The current price is $927.03.

What is the analyst price target for LITE?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for LITE is $1148.43. This implies a potential upside of 23.9% from current levels.

Lumentum (LITE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

LITE - Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock

COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT, NEC

$927.03

-8.67 (-0.93%) ▼

5d: +9.4%

30d: -0.58%

90d: +4.21%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your LITE Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 3, 2026 at $847.37 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 8.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: LITE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -18.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$1621.23

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$1006.66

7.9% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: LITE is currently trading at $927.03, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $833.47 to $938.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.8) compared to its historical average (50.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 71.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $818.89, while resistance sits at $1026.76.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1148.43 (+23.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $833.47 - $938.38

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 65.2%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 23.9% below Wall St target ($1148.43)
WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $833.47 - $938.38

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $818.89

Resistance Level $1026.76

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 27.84

Wall Street Target $1148.43 (+23.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 109.3%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 71.1%

Profit Margin -230.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -18.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 27.8 vs 50.4 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -18.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $834.33 (-10%)

2-Year Target $750.89 (-19%)

3-Year Target $675.80 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 28→50) $1223.54 (+32%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 27.8, Growth: 53.9%) $3128.73 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 53.9%) $2266.94 (+145%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 53.9%) $1926.90 (+108%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.8 to 50.4

Stabilization Target: $1678.38 (+81.0%)

PE Expansion Potential: +81.0%

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

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Advanced LITE Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LITE price and gamma walls.

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