AN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AN - AutoNation, Inc.
$190.25
-0.84 (-0.44%)
▼
5d:
-2.41%
30d:
-6.12%
90d:
-2.81%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 31, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.0% annual earnings decline despite 32% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.0% annual earnings decline despite 32% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$324.95
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$201.77
5.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AN is currently trading at $190.25, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $186.58 to $204.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $176.62, while resistance sits at $199.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $242.75 (+27.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $176.62, while resistance sits at $199.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $242.75 (+27.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$186.58 -
$204.38
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.6% below Wall St target ($242.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$186.58 -
$204.38
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$176.62
Resistance Level
$199.19
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.84
Wall Street Target
$242.75
(+27.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.5%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 8.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$182.64
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$175.33
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$168.32
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$189.03
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 13.6%)
$780.73
(+310%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 13.6%)
$279.22
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 13.6%)
$237.33
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.44
Bull Case
$281.27
(+45%)
Analyst growth 31.2%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$255.70
(+32%)
Market implied 31.2%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$132.56
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$213.66
(+12.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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