KMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMX - CarMax Inc.
$46.03
2.10 (4.78%)
▲
5d:
+8.92%
30d:
+24.81%
90d:
+9.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 19, 2026
15d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: KMX is 8.3% above its trading range ($42.52). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: KMX is 8.3% above its trading range ($42.52). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.08
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $46.03, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.96 to $42.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (15.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: KMX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: KMX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$36.96 -
$42.52
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding KMX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.3% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.8%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($42.15)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.0% growth with -1.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.96 -
$42.52
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.17
Resistance Level
$45.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.38
Wall Street Target
$42.15
(-8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.2%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.0% premium
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 15.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.79
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$51.72
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$54.82
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$45.93
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -6.5%)
$44.85
(+-3%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: -6.5%)
$37.63
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: -6.5%)
$31.53
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.68
Bull Case
$69.29
(+58%)
Analyst growth 49.0%, PE expands to 27.7
Base Case
$62.99
(+44%)
Market implied 49.0%, PE stable at 25.2
Bear Case
$28.74
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:32 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-22
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